finance
🔥 Hot⚡ Tight
85%
+7%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T?
24h Vol
$185.2K
Liquidity
$84.9K
Spread
1%
12/31/2027
View marketTechnology
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Сириус be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 12?. The market currently shows a live probability of 4%, $65 in 24h volume, and $597.6 in liquidity.
Probability
4%
24h Volume
$65
Liquidity
$597.6
This market asks whether the app named Сириус will be the number one free app in the United States App Store on June 12, measured at 12:00 PM ET. It is a narrow timing question tied to Apple’s public Top Charts, so the answer depends on where that app sits in the rankings at that specific checkpoint.
The event is defined by the iPhone App Store’s U.S. "Free Apps" chart, not by overall downloads, revenue, or any other store ranking. To resolve Yes, Сириус must be listed as #1 in the U.S. Top Charts under Free Apps at 12:00 PM ET on June 12; otherwise it resolves No. The market description gives a specific path to the source of truth: Apple’s App Store charts page for U.S. iPhone apps.
The uncertainty comes from the fact that free-app rankings can change quickly as downloads rise and fall during the day. Readers care because a #1 ranking is a visible signal of consumer demand, app-store momentum, and short-term attention, but it can be fleeting and sensitive to promotions, launches, or viral interest. The market is pricing disagreement about whether Сириус can hold the top free-app position at that exact snapshot in time.
Any event that pushes Сириус up or down the U.S. free-app chart can change the market’s value, especially a product announcement, a promotional campaign, or a sudden surge in downloads. Competitive launches from other popular free apps can also matter if they overtake Сириус before the 12:00 PM ET check. Because the market resolves on a single timestamp, even a brief lead earlier in the day does not help unless the app is still #1 at the resolution time.
The current market price implies roughly a 4% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Related markets
+7%
24h Vol
$185.2K
Liquidity
$84.9K
Spread
1%
12/31/2027
View marketThe key thing to verify is the exact App Store chart Apple shows at 12:00 PM ET on June 12, under Apps > Top Free Apps > Free Apps in the U.S. iPhone store. Readers should pay attention to the resolution source, the timezone, and the fact that only the ranked list at that moment matters; later movement on the chart should not affect the outcome. If Apple changes how the chart is displayed or if the app name appears differently, the market rules and listed source become important for interpreting the result.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Сириус be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 12?. The market currently shows a live probability of 4%, $65 in 24h volume, and $597.6 in liquidity.
Track live technology prediction markets focused on AI, major tech events, product launches, innovation forecasts, and emerging industry trends.
Yes
4.2%
No
95.9%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 13, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve according to the iOS app, ranked #1 in the United States on the iPhone Apple App Store's overall Top Charts under "Free Apps", as of 12:00 PM ET on the specified date. To find the overall chart, click "Apps" at the bottom of the US iOS App Store app, scroll down to "Top Free Apps" and click "See All". Then under "Free Apps" in the "Top Charts" section, you'll see the list that will be used as the resolution source to this market (https://apps.apple.com/us/charts/iphone).
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is wider, so the headline probability may be less precise than it looks.
Recent movement
No 24h movement is available yet.
The current displayed probability is 4%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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