finance
⚡ Tight💧 Liquid
11%
+2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T?
24h Vol
$71.1K
Liquidity
$53.7K
Spread
1%
12/31/2027
View marketTechnology
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will ByteDance have the best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 0%, $843.9 in 24h volume, and $3K in liquidity.
Probability
0%
24h Volume
$843.9
Liquidity
$3K
This market asks whether ByteDance will own the top-ranked coding model on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard at the end of June 2026. It is a focused way to watch how ByteDance’s coding model stack compares with rivals like Google, OpenAI, Anthropic, and xAI on a public benchmark that updates over time.
The question is not simply which company has a strong coding model, but which company sits in first place on the "Text Arena | Coding" leaderboard when it is checked on June 30, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Resolution uses the rank shown on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard with style control off, and if there is a tie, the market says to break it by Arena score, then by company name order if needed. In plain terms, ByteDance only wins if its model is the one that the leaderboard places at the very top at the resolution time.
ByteDance has been part of the broader race to build capable coding assistants, but the top spot on a benchmark leaderboard can change quickly as companies release new models or update existing ones. The uncertainty here is about whether ByteDance can outscore other major AI developers on the specific coding track by the check date, not whether it has a good model in general. Readers may care because leaderboard leadership is often used as a shorthand for model quality, product momentum, and developer attention.
The biggest price moves would usually come from new model launches, major version updates, or benchmark refreshes that change the ranking on the coding tab before the June 30 check. A ByteDance release that improves coding performance enough to take first place would push this market toward "Yes," while a strong new showing from another lab would pull it the other way. Because the market resolves by a specific leaderboard snapshot, even small rank changes near the top can matter a lot.
Related markets
+2%
24h Vol
$71.1K
Liquidity
$53.7K
Spread
1%
12/31/2027
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 0% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Before resolution, the key thing to verify is the exact Chatbot Arena page and ranking method named in the rules: the "Text Arena | Coding" leaderboard at lmarena.ai with style control off. The market resolves only from the rank shown at the stated check time, so readers should pay attention to whether the leaderboard is online, whether any ties are present, and whether the company ownership of the top model is clear. If the source is unavailable at the scheduled check, the rules say the market stays open until the leaderboard returns, which makes source availability an important detail to watch.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will ByteDance have the best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 0%, $843.9 in 24h volume, and $3K in liquidity.
Track live technology prediction markets focused on AI, major tech events, product launches, innovation forecasts, and emerging industry trends.
Yes
0.1%
No
100%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 30, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab for "Coding" is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Coding" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/coding-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
No 24h movement is available yet.
The current displayed probability is 0%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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