finance
🔥 Hot⚡ Tight
85%
+7%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T?
24h Vol
$185.2K
Liquidity
$84.9K
Spread
1%
12/31/2027
View marketTechnology
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will ByteDance have the second best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 1%, $86.5 in 24h volume, and $1K in liquidity.
Probability
1%
24h Volume
$86.5
Liquidity
$1K
This market asks whether ByteDance will be the company behind the No. 2 model on the Chatbot Arena Coding leaderboard at the end of June 2026. It is worth watching because the answer depends on a very specific public ranking of coding-focused AI models, not just on product announcements or general brand reputation.
The resolution target is the "Text Arena | Coding" leaderboard on lmarena.ai, checked at June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET, with style control turned off. The market resolves to the company that owns the model in second place by the leaderboard’s rank column, using Arena score as the first tiebreaker if ranks are tied, then alphabetical company order if exact ties still remain. In plain English: this is a question about whether ByteDance’s coding model will be sitting in second place on that date, according to the site’s published ranking rules.
ByteDance is best known globally for TikTok and other consumer software, but this market is specifically about its standing in frontier coding models, where rankings can shift as companies release new versions or tune existing ones. The uncertainty comes from the fact that leaderboard positions can change as labs update models, and the market is pricing whether ByteDance will finish June 2026 with the second-strongest coding model on this public benchmark. Because the outcome depends on a single ranked table at a fixed check time, even small score changes or a fresh release from another company could matter.
The biggest drivers are new model launches, major upgrades, or reranks on the Chatbot Arena coding board that push ByteDance up or down relative to competitors such as Google, OpenAI, Anthropic, xAI, or others with active coding models. A public release that improves ByteDance’s coding performance, or a rival model that jumps ahead on Arena, could change whether ByteDance finishes second. Since the market uses the leaderboard at one exact check time, any change published before that deadline can matter more than older results.
Related markets
+7%
24h Vol
$185.2K
Liquidity
$84.9K
Spread
1%
12/31/2027
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 1% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Readers should check the exact leaderboard page specified in the rules, not a different Arena tab or a separate benchmark, because the market uses the Coding leaderboard with style control off. The key details are the rank column, the underlying Arena score used for tie-breaking, and the company attribution for the model in second place at June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. If the leaderboard is temporarily unavailable at check time, the market stays open until it returns, so the source’s availability and the first successful post-recovery check also matter.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will ByteDance have the second best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 1%, $86.5 in 24h volume, and $1K in liquidity.
Track live technology prediction markets focused on AI, major tech events, product launches, innovation forecasts, and emerging industry trends.
Yes
0.6%
No
99.4%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 30, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the second-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab for "Coding" is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Coding" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/coding-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
No 24h movement is available yet.
The current displayed probability is 1%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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