Sports
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?. The market currently shows a live probability of 0%, $37.7K in 24h volume, and $12.9M in liquidity.
Probability
0%
24h Volume
$37.7K
Liquidity
$12.9M
This market asks whether Cape Verde will finish as the champion of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Because the World Cup is a single-elimination tournament once the knockout rounds begin, the question is not just whether Cape Verde can qualify, but whether it can survive every stage all the way to the final.
Cape Verde is the national men’s team of the island country in Atlantic Africa, and this market resolves on the team that officially wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Under the market rules, a “Yes” pays only if Cape Verde is the tournament winner; if Cape Verde is eliminated at any point before that, the market resolves “No.” If the event is canceled or not completed by October 13, 2026 at 11:59 PM, the market resolves to “Other.”
The uncertainty here comes from the extreme difficulty of the World Cup itself and from Cape Verde’s place in that field. Even for strong national teams, winning the tournament requires a deep run against elite opponents, so a smaller program like Cape Verde would need a historic sequence of results to cash this market. Readers care because the market is essentially asking whether one of international soccer’s biggest underdogs can accomplish the sport’s hardest prize.
Anything that changes Cape Verde’s path to the World Cup title can move this market, especially qualification, group-stage performance, knockout seeding, injuries, suspensions, and roster availability. If Cape Verde fails to qualify for the tournament, or is eliminated once the tournament begins, the market should move sharply because the “Yes” outcome becomes impossible under the rules. More generally, strong official results in FIFA matches, a favorable draw, or a deep run would be the kinds of developments that make the market less one-sided.
The current market price implies roughly a 0% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Related markets
The key things to verify are Cape Verde’s qualification status, its progress through the World Cup bracket, and the official FIFA result of the final. The settlement source is primarily FIFA, with credible reporting only as a backup if needed, so the official tournament record matters most. Also note the deadline: if the 2026 World Cup is not completed by October 13, 2026 at 11:59 PM, the market does not resolve to a team winner but to “Other,” so any delay or cancellation would change the outcome rules.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?. The market currently shows a live probability of 0%, $37.7K in 24h volume, and $12.9M in liquidity.
Track live sports prediction markets focused on championships, tournaments, player performances, team outcomes, and major sporting events worldwide.
Yes
0.1%
No
100%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jul 20, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve according to the national team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is relatively deep for a prediction market page, so quoted prices may be more reliable than very thin markets.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
No 24h movement is available yet.
The current displayed probability is 0%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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7/6/2026
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7/6/2026
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