finance
⚡ Tight💧 Liquid
10%
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Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June?
24h Vol
$44.7K
Liquidity
$38.2K
Spread
1%
7/1/2026
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Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Citigroup (C) Q2 provision for credit losses be above $2.3B?. The market currently shows a live probability of 82%, $60.7 in 24h volume, and $2.6K in liquidity.
Probability
82%
24h Volume
$60.7
Liquidity
$2.6K
This market asks whether Citigroup will report second-quarter provision for credit losses above $2.3 billion in its official Q2 earnings materials. It is a closely watched line item because provisions can signal how management sees loan performance and the risk of future losses, especially at a large bank like Citigroup. The result will be determined by the company’s own earnings materials, not by outside estimates or later revisions.
The question centers on Citigroup, the global banking company that trades on the NYSE under ticker C, and one specific accounting figure from its upcoming second fiscal quarter: provision for credit losses. That number is typically disclosed in the bank’s earnings release, investor presentation, or regulatory filing for the quarter ending in June 2026, with this market set to fail if no quarterly materials are released by August 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. If Citigroup reports a range instead of a single number, the midpoint will be used, and if the metric is omitted from the official materials, the market resolves to No.
Citigroup’s provision for credit losses matters because it reflects how much the bank is setting aside for loans it expects may not be repaid. For a large diversified lender, that figure can move with changes in consumer credit quality, corporate lending conditions, and management’s outlook, so investors often watch it closely around earnings season. The market is pricing a straightforward but uncertain threshold: whether Citigroup’s reported Q2 provision lands above or below $2.3 billion.
The price can move when traders reassess what Citigroup is likely to disclose in its official earnings release or filing. A lower-than-expected bank credit environment, comments from management about stable delinquencies, or a reported figure near the $2.3 billion line can all shift expectations quickly. Because the resolution depends on the exact number in official materials, even wording in the earnings release or presentation that clarifies the provision figure can matter.
Related markets
+1%
24h Vol
$44.7K
Liquidity
$38.2K
Spread
1%
7/1/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 82% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Before resolution, readers should check Citigroup’s official Q2 earnings release, investor presentation, and any related regulatory filing, since those are the primary sources for this market. The key detail is the exact reported provision for credit losses, including whether it is given as a single figure or a range, because the midpoint rule applies if a range is used. If the number is not included in the official materials, or if quarterly earnings materials are not released by the August 31, 2026 deadline, the market resolves to No.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Citigroup (C) Q2 provision for credit losses be above $2.3B?. The market currently shows a live probability of 82%, $60.7 in 24h volume, and $2.6K in liquidity.
Track live finance prediction markets focused on interest rates, inflation, stock market events, central bank decisions, and global financial forecasting trends.
Yes
81.5%
No
18.5%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jul 14, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Citigroup's provision for credit losses for the upcoming second fiscal quarter, as reported in its official company earnings materials, is above the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The company trades under the ticker C as of the creation of this market. The specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered. If the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to "No". If the specified company does not release quarterly earnings materials for the specified quarter by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". If the specified metric is reported as a range rather than a specific number, the midpoint of the range will be used for resolution of this market. The resolution source for this market is Citigroup's official company earnings materials, including press releases, investor presentations, and regulatory filings. If the specified metric is not reported in these materials, recordings or transcripts of the company's earnings webcast may also be used. Note: This market will resolve based on the most numerically precise version of the specified metric reported in the company's official earnings materials. Only the specified metric will be considered; alternate versions that differ in definition or scope from the specified metric will not be considered.
Probability signal
The current price implies a strong favorite, so new information would need to be meaningful to move the market sharply.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is wider, so the headline probability may be less precise than it looks.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 82%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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