finance
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Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June?
24h Vol
$44.7K
Liquidity
$39.3K
Spread
1%
7/1/2026
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Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Citigroup (C) Q2 provision for credit losses be above $2.5B?. The market currently shows a live probability of 81%, $185.6 in 24h volume, and $3.6K in liquidity.
Probability
81%
24h Volume
$185.6
Liquidity
$3.6K
This market asks whether Citigroup will report second-quarter provision for credit losses above $2.5 billion in its official earnings materials. It is a close watch item because loan-loss provisions are one of the clearest signals of how a large bank is seeing credit conditions, consumer stress, and potential future losses.
The event is tied to Citigroup, which trades under the ticker C, and specifically to its Q2 provision for credit losses. Resolution depends on the number reported in Citigroup’s official quarterly earnings materials, such as its press release, investor presentation, or regulatory filing, with webcast transcripts only used if the figure is not available elsewhere. If the company reports a range, the midpoint is used; if the metric is missing entirely or the company has not released the quarter’s earnings materials by August 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves No.
Credit-loss provisions can move around from quarter to quarter because banks adjust them based on expected defaults, portfolio quality, and management’s view of the economic outlook. Citigroup is a major global bank with exposure to consumer lending, corporate credit, and international markets, so its reserve level can differ meaningfully from the prior quarter and from analyst expectations. The market is pricing disagreement over whether Q2 will come in above the $2.5 billion threshold or stay at or below it.
The price can move if Citigroup gives any guidance on reserve build, loan performance, charge-offs, or credit trends ahead of earnings. The biggest single trigger will be the actual earnings release, especially if the reported provision is near the $2.5 billion line or if the company presents the figure in a way that requires midpoint treatment. A reported number that is clearly above the threshold would support Yes, while a lower figure or a missing line item would point toward No under the market rules.
Related markets
+1%
24h Vol
$44.7K
Liquidity
$39.3K
Spread
1%
7/1/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 81% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Readers should check Citigroup’s official second-quarter earnings materials first, since those are the primary source of truth for resolution. The key details are the exact reported provision for credit losses, whether it is given as a single number or a range, and whether the figure appears in the press release, investor deck, filing, or webcast transcript. The main ambiguity risk is that the market uses the most numerically precise version available, so a revised presentation, range, or omission can matter even if headlines summarize the result differently.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Citigroup (C) Q2 provision for credit losses be above $2.5B?. The market currently shows a live probability of 81%, $185.6 in 24h volume, and $3.6K in liquidity.
Track live finance prediction markets focused on interest rates, inflation, stock market events, central bank decisions, and global financial forecasting trends.
Yes
81%
No
19%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jul 14, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Citigroup's provision for credit losses for the upcoming second fiscal quarter, as reported in its official company earnings materials, is above the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The company trades under the ticker C as of the creation of this market. The specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered. If the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to "No". If the specified company does not release quarterly earnings materials for the specified quarter by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". If the specified metric is reported as a range rather than a specific number, the midpoint of the range will be used for resolution of this market. The resolution source for this market is Citigroup's official company earnings materials, including press releases, investor presentations, and regulatory filings. If the specified metric is not reported in these materials, recordings or transcripts of the company's earnings webcast may also be used. Note: This market will resolve based on the most numerically precise version of the specified metric reported in the company's official earnings materials. Only the specified metric will be considered; alternate versions that differ in definition or scope from the specified metric will not be considered.
Probability signal
The current price implies a strong favorite, so new information would need to be meaningful to move the market sharply.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 81%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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