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24h Vol
$44.7K
Liquidity
$39.3K
Spread
1%
7/1/2026
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Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Citigroup (C) Q2 provision for credit losses be above $2.7B?. The market currently shows a live probability of 71%, $538.7 in 24h volume, and $270.2 in liquidity.
Probability
71%
24h Volume
$538.7
Liquidity
$270.2
This market is about Citigroup’s second-quarter provision for credit losses, a line item that reflects how much the bank sets aside for loans it expects may not be repaid. Because the threshold is set at $2.7 billion, the key question is whether Citi’s official Q2 earnings materials show a figure above that level.
The event concerns Citigroup Inc. (NYSE ticker: C) and the provision for credit losses it reports for the upcoming second fiscal quarter. Resolution depends on the number published in Citi’s official earnings materials for that quarter, such as its earnings press release, investor presentation, or related regulatory filing. If the company reports a range, the midpoint is used; if the metric is not reported, the market resolves to No, and if no quarterly earnings materials are released by August 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, it also resolves to No.
Investors watch provisions for credit losses because they can move around with changes in consumer stress, commercial lending conditions, and management’s view of future losses. The uncertainty here is not whether Citi will report earnings, but where this specific accounting estimate lands relative to a relatively high cutoff of $2.7 billion. Market participants may disagree because the number can be influenced by loan growth, reserve-building, and how cautious management chooses to be in a given quarter.
The biggest price mover will be the actual Q2 earnings release and any exact wording around credit costs, reserves, or loan-loss provisioning. If Citi’s press release, presentation, or filing includes a figure clearly above $2.7 billion, that would favor Yes; a figure at or below the threshold would favor No. A range, if reported, matters too, because the market uses the midpoint, and any omission of the metric from official materials is itself resolution-relevant.
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+1%
24h Vol
$44.7K
Liquidity
$39.3K
Spread
1%
7/1/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 71% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Readers should watch Citi’s official second-quarter earnings materials, since those documents are the source of truth for this market. The important details are the exact reported provision for credit losses, whether it is stated as a single number or a range, and whether the figure appears in the press release, investor deck, filing, or webcast transcript used only if the number is not otherwise stated. The deadline to keep in mind is August 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, after which a missing release resolves the market to No.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Citigroup (C) Q2 provision for credit losses be above $2.7B?. The market currently shows a live probability of 71%, $538.7 in 24h volume, and $270.2 in liquidity.
Track live finance prediction markets focused on interest rates, inflation, stock market events, central bank decisions, and global financial forecasting trends.
Yes
70.5%
No
29.5%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jul 14, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Citigroup's provision for credit losses for the upcoming second fiscal quarter, as reported in its official company earnings materials, is above the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The company trades under the ticker C as of the creation of this market. The specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered. If the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to "No". If the specified company does not release quarterly earnings materials for the specified quarter by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". If the specified metric is reported as a range rather than a specific number, the midpoint of the range will be used for resolution of this market. The resolution source for this market is Citigroup's official company earnings materials, including press releases, investor presentations, and regulatory filings. If the specified metric is not reported in these materials, recordings or transcripts of the company's earnings webcast may also be used. Note: This market will resolve based on the most numerically precise version of the specified metric reported in the company's official earnings materials. Only the specified metric will be considered; alternate versions that differ in definition or scope from the specified metric will not be considered.
Probability signal
The current price implies a strong favorite, so new information would need to be meaningful to move the market sharply.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is wider, so the headline probability may be less precise than it looks.
Recent movement
The 24h move is notable, so recent news or market activity may have changed trader expectations.
The current displayed probability is 71%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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