
-6.5%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June?
24h Vol
$42.4K
Liquidity
$31.3K
Spread
2%
7/1/2026
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Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Citigroup (C) Q2 provision for credit losses be above $2.9B?. The market currently shows a live probability of 55%, $2.5K in 24h volume, and $806.1 in liquidity.
Probability
55%
24h Volume
$2.5K
Liquidity
$806.1
This market is watching Citigroup’s second-quarter earnings disclosure for one specific accounting line: provision for credit losses. That number matters because it shows how much the bank is setting aside for loans that may not be repaid, which can move sharply with changes in consumer credit, corporate defaults, and the broader economic outlook.
The question is whether Citigroup, traded as C, will report Q2 provision for credit losses above $2.9 billion in its official earnings materials. Resolution depends on the company’s own quarterly earnings release, investor presentation, or regulatory filing for that quarter, and if the figure appears as a range the midpoint is used. If Citigroup does not publish the metric in those materials, or does not release the quarter’s earnings materials by August 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to No.
Provision for credit losses is one of the clearest window-dressing-resistant measures in a bank earnings report, so a single quarter can be a meaningful signal about loan performance and management’s view of risk. Traders may disagree on whether Citigroup will need to reserve more than this threshold because the number reflects both current credit conditions and judgment about future stress. The market is essentially pricing the chance that Citigroup’s reserve build comes in above a specific, fairly high cutoff.
The biggest price driver will be the exact number Citigroup publishes in its Q2 earnings materials, especially if it lands just above or below $2.9 billion. Any wording in the release or presentation that clarifies charge-offs, reserve builds, or changes in outlook could also matter if it helps identify the most precise reported figure. Because the resolution source is official company materials, the market may also react to whether the number is presented in a table, footnote, or filing rather than only discussed on the earnings call.
Related markets

-6.5%
24h Vol
$42.4K
Liquidity
$31.3K
Spread
2%
7/1/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 55% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Readers should check Citigroup’s official quarterly earnings release, investor presentation, and any accompanying 10-Q or other regulatory filing, since those are the source of truth for resolution. The key detail is the most numerically precise reported provision for credit losses for Q2, not later commentary or revisions after the fact. If the company reports a range, the midpoint controls, and if the metric is omitted entirely from the official materials, the market resolves to No.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Citigroup (C) Q2 provision for credit losses be above $2.9B?. The market currently shows a live probability of 55%, $2.5K in 24h volume, and $806.1 in liquidity.
Track live finance prediction markets focused on interest rates, inflation, stock market events, central bank decisions, and global financial forecasting trends.
Yes
54.5%
No
45.5%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jul 14, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Citigroup's provision for credit losses for the upcoming second fiscal quarter, as reported in its official company earnings materials, is above the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The company trades under the ticker C as of the creation of this market. The specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered. If the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to "No". If the specified company does not release quarterly earnings materials for the specified quarter by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". If the specified metric is reported as a range rather than a specific number, the midpoint of the range will be used for resolution of this market. The resolution source for this market is Citigroup's official company earnings materials, including press releases, investor presentations, and regulatory filings. If the specified metric is not reported in these materials, recordings or transcripts of the company's earnings webcast may also be used. Note: This market will resolve based on the most numerically precise version of the specified metric reported in the company's official earnings materials. Only the specified metric will be considered; alternate versions that differ in definition or scope from the specified metric will not be considered.
Probability signal
The market is priced near the middle, which usually means traders are still weighing competing outcomes.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is wider, so the headline probability may be less precise than it looks.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 55%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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