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$44.7K
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$39.3K
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7/1/2026
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Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Citigroup (C) Q2 provision for credit losses be above $3.1B?. The market currently shows a live probability of 14%, $122 in 24h volume, and $2.7K in liquidity.
Probability
14%
24h Volume
$122
Liquidity
$2.7K
This market asks whether Citigroup’s second-quarter provision for credit losses will come in above $3.1 billion in the bank’s official earnings materials. It is a focused read on how much Citigroup is setting aside for potential loan losses, which can be an important signal about credit quality and management’s view of the lending environment.
The event is tied to Citigroup, the U.S. banking company that trades under the ticker C, and specifically to its Q2 earnings release and related official disclosures. The resolution threshold is simple: if the reported provision for credit losses is above $3.1 billion, the market resolves Yes; if it is at or below that level, it resolves No. If Citigroup reports a range instead of a single figure, the midpoint is used, and if the metric is not included in the official earnings materials, the market resolves No.
Provision for credit losses is one of the most closely watched numbers in bank earnings because it reflects how much cushion a lender is building against future defaults. For Citigroup, a result above or below $3.1 billion would suggest different expectations about consumer and corporate credit performance, loan demand, and broader economic pressure. The market is pricing uncertainty around where that line will land when the company publishes its quarterly materials.
The biggest price moves will come from Citigroup’s official earnings release, investor presentation, and any regulatory filing that states the provision figure. If the company gives a precise number well above the threshold, the market should move toward Yes; if the number is comfortably below it, the market should move toward No. A late change in wording, a range instead of a point estimate, or a delayed report could also matter because the contract resolves only on the most precise official number available by the deadline.
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+1%
24h Vol
$44.7K
Liquidity
$39.3K
Spread
1%
7/1/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 14% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Readers should watch the company’s Q2 earnings date and the exact language in Citigroup’s press release, presentation deck, and filing, since those are the stated resolution sources. The key detail is whether the metric is reported as “provision for credit losses” in a way that matches the contract’s wording, and whether the figure is given as a single number or a range. If the number is missing from the official materials altogether, the market resolves No, and if no quarterly earnings materials are released by August 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, it also resolves No.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Citigroup (C) Q2 provision for credit losses be above $3.1B?. The market currently shows a live probability of 14%, $122 in 24h volume, and $2.7K in liquidity.
Track live finance prediction markets focused on interest rates, inflation, stock market events, central bank decisions, and global financial forecasting trends.
Yes
13.5%
No
86.5%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jul 14, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Citigroup's provision for credit losses for the upcoming second fiscal quarter, as reported in its official company earnings materials, is above the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The company trades under the ticker C as of the creation of this market. The specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered. If the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to "No". If the specified company does not release quarterly earnings materials for the specified quarter by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". If the specified metric is reported as a range rather than a specific number, the midpoint of the range will be used for resolution of this market. The resolution source for this market is Citigroup's official company earnings materials, including press releases, investor presentations, and regulatory filings. If the specified metric is not reported in these materials, recordings or transcripts of the company's earnings webcast may also be used. Note: This market will resolve based on the most numerically precise version of the specified metric reported in the company's official earnings materials. Only the specified metric will be considered; alternate versions that differ in definition or scope from the specified metric will not be considered.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
No 24h movement is available yet.
The current displayed probability is 14%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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