Will Claude be restored for international customers by September 30?

Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Claude be restored for international customers by September 30?. The market currently shows a live probability of 30%, $463.5 in 24h volume, and $1.1K in liquidity.

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This market is currently listed with an end date of Dec 31, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.

On June 9, 2026, Anthropic released the AI model “Claude Fable 5” to the general public. On June 12, 2026, Anthropic suspended access to the specified model in response to a directive from the US government. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic restores access to “Claude Fable 5,” also known as “Claude Mythos,” or a model confirmed to be the same model to non-American customers outside of the United States by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A qualifying model must be named "Claude Fable 5” or “Claude Mythos” (e.g., Claude Mythos 1, Claude Mythos 5, Claude Mythos X, would count), or be confirmed by Anthropic or by a consensus of credible reporting to be the same model as released by Anthropic on June 9, 2026. Products labeled as Claude Haiku, Sonnet, and Opus 4.7/5.0 or similar will not count for this market's resolution unless they are confirmed to be the same model released by Anthropic on June 9, 2026. For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be restored to public accessibility in at least one country outside of the United States, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The restoration must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to international customers. If an otherwise qualifying restoration restricts access to certain customers based on nationality, whether geographically inside or outside of the US, that restoration will still qualify. If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.