finance
🔥 Hot⚡ Tight
85%
+7%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T?
24h Vol
$185.2K
Liquidity
$84.9K
Spread
1%
12/31/2027
View marketTechnology
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Claude by Anthropic be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 12?. The market currently shows a live probability of 14%, $51.2 in 24h volume, and $521.2 in liquidity.
Probability
14%
24h Volume
$51.2
Liquidity
$521.2
This market asks whether Claude, the Anthropic chatbot app, will finish the day as the number-one free app in the U.S. iPhone App Store on June 12, measured at 12:00 PM ET. It is a tightly defined snapshot of App Store rankings, so the key issue is not general popularity, but whether Claude reaches the top of Apple’s U.S. “Free Apps” chart at that specific time.
The event is about the iOS app called Claude by Anthropic and whether it will be ranked #1 in the United States on Apple’s App Store under the overall Top Charts section for “Free Apps.” The resolution source is the U.S. App Store chart shown on Apple’s iPhone charts page, and the market resolves based on the ranking at 12:00 PM ET on June 12. If Claude is at the top of that free-app list at that moment, the market resolves Yes; otherwise it resolves No.
Claude is a consumer-facing AI app from Anthropic, so its ranking can move quickly if the product gets a burst of downloads, attention, or a major announcement. Markets like this are driven by uncertainty over whether a specific app can outrank every other free iPhone app in the U.S. on a single timestamp, which is a much narrower question than overall product popularity. The uncertainty also comes from the fact that App Store rankings can change fast and may be influenced by short-lived spikes in interest.
The biggest price movers would be events that affect App Store download volume before the noon ET snapshot, such as a new Claude feature, a major Anthropic announcement, a promotional push, or a wave of attention that sends users to the app. Changes in the broader AI app landscape can matter too, especially if another free app surges at the same time and prevents Claude from taking the top spot. Because the market resolves on a single chart reading, even a short-lived jump or drop around the deadline could matter more than longer-term product momentum.
Related markets
+7%
24h Vol
$185.2K
Liquidity
$84.9K
Spread
1%
12/31/2027
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 14% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Readers should verify the exact Apple chart used here: the U.S. iPhone App Store’s overall Top Charts under “Free Apps,” checked at 12:00 PM ET on June 12. The market description is specific about the source of truth, so the important question is whether Claude is ranked #1 at that exact time, not whether it was briefly #1 earlier or later in the day. One ambiguity to watch for is whether the app appears under a slightly different name, but the resolution rule points to the chart ranking itself rather than branding or publisher identity.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Claude by Anthropic be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 12?. The market currently shows a live probability of 14%, $51.2 in 24h volume, and $521.2 in liquidity.
Track live technology prediction markets focused on AI, major tech events, product launches, innovation forecasts, and emerging industry trends.
Yes
14.5%
No
85.5%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 13, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve according to the iOS app, ranked #1 in the United States on the iPhone Apple App Store's overall Top Charts under "Free Apps", as of 12:00 PM ET on the specified date. To find the overall chart, click "Apps" at the bottom of the US iOS App Store app, scroll down to "Top Free Apps" and click "See All". Then under "Free Apps" in the "Top Charts" section, you'll see the list that will be used as the resolution source to this market (https://apps.apple.com/us/charts/iphone).
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is wider, so the headline probability may be less precise than it looks.
Recent movement
No 24h movement is available yet.
The current displayed probability is 14%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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