Sports
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?. The market currently shows a live probability of 1%, $1.4M in 24h volume, and $1.1M in liquidity.
Probability
1%
24h Volume
$1.4M
Liquidity
$1.1M
This market asks whether Croatia will finish as the champion of the 2026 FIFA World Cup, the tournament’s ultimate title held once every four years. It is worth watching because Croatia has been a strong international side in recent World Cups, but winning the whole event requires surviving a long knockout run against the best national teams in the world.
The question is simple: will Croatia be the national team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup? The market resolves on the official World Cup winner, with FIFA’s result as the main source, and it is set to resolve early to “No” if Croatia is eliminated in a way that makes the title impossible. If the tournament is canceled or not completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM, the outcome is “Other.”
There is real uncertainty because the World Cup field is large, the format is unforgiving, and even strong teams can be knocked out in a single match. Croatia’s recent reputation as a competitive tournament team gives some reason for interest, but the market is effectively asking whether it can outperform many larger favorites across the entire competition. The disagreement being priced is about how plausible an outright title run is, not whether Croatia can simply qualify or advance a few rounds.
The biggest price moves will come from Croatia’s road through qualifying, its final roster, injuries, and the makeup of the 2026 tournament bracket once the draw is set. Results in the group stage and knockout rounds matter immediately, because the market can resolve to “No” as soon as Croatia is eliminated in a way that removes any path to the trophy. Official FIFA updates, confirmed squad changes, and the emergence or exit of major contenders can also shift sentiment as the tournament approaches.
The current market price implies roughly a 1% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Related markets
The key things to verify are FIFA’s official match results, the tournament format, and whether Croatia remains mathematically alive for the title at each stage. Because the market can settle early on elimination, readers should pay attention not just to Croatia’s wins and losses but to whether it is still in the bracket at all. The final deadline only becomes relevant if the tournament is canceled or unfinished, in which case the market resolves to “Other.”
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?. The market currently shows a live probability of 1%, $1.4M in 24h volume, and $1.1M in liquidity.
Track live sports prediction markets focused on championships, tournaments, player performances, team outcomes, and major sporting events worldwide.
Yes
1%
No
99.1%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jul 20, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve according to the national team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is relatively deep for a prediction market page, so quoted prices may be more reliable than very thin markets.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 1%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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7/6/2026
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7/6/2026
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