Sports
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?. The market currently shows a live probability of 0%, $18.6K in 24h volume, and $12.9M in liquidity.
Probability
0%
24h Volume
$18.6K
Liquidity
$12.9M
This market asks whether Curaçao will win the 2026 FIFA World Cup, the men’s tournament that crowns the global champion every four years. It is a long-shot question because the field includes far larger and more established national teams, but the market stays open until the winner is decided or Curaçao is mathematically eliminated under FIFA’s rules.
The outcome here is straightforward: if Curaçao is the national team that officially wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup, the market resolves to “Yes.” If Curaçao is knocked out of contention at any stage, the market resolves immediately to “No,” even if the tournament is still ongoing. The market is set to end around the tournament window, with a separate fallback rule that points to October 13, 2026 if the World Cup is not completed by then or is canceled.
Curaçao is a small Caribbean nation whose men’s team has never been a World Cup favorite, so there is a genuine question about whether it can even survive the qualifying and knockout paths required to lift the trophy. The market is effectively pricing the uncertainty around a very specific sporting feat: whether a small federation can navigate FIFA qualification, group play, and the knockout bracket all the way to the title. Because the resolution depends on the official World Cup winner, even a deep run is not enough unless it ends with the championship.
Any sign that Curaçao is on track for an unusually strong World Cup cycle can matter, especially qualification results, roster availability, and whether key players are healthy and eligible for the tournament. Once the final tournament begins, group-stage results, bracket position, and knockout-round elimination risk are the biggest price movers because the market resolves to “No” as soon as Curaçao can no longer win. Changes in tournament completion, cancellation, or an unresolved event by the stated deadline would also affect settlement.
Related markets
The current market price implies roughly a 0% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Readers should watch the official FIFA tournament bracket, match results, and elimination status, because those determine whether Curaçao can still win. The most important source of truth is FIFA’s official information, although credible reporting may be used if the result or tournament status is unclear. Also note the settlement fallback: if the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or unfinished by October 13, 2026 at 11:59 PM, the market resolves to “Other,” so the exact completion date and any competition changes matter.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?. The market currently shows a live probability of 0%, $18.6K in 24h volume, and $12.9M in liquidity.
Track live sports prediction markets focused on championships, tournaments, player performances, team outcomes, and major sporting events worldwide.
Yes
0.1%
No
100%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jul 20, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve according to the national team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is relatively deep for a prediction market page, so quoted prices may be more reliable than very thin markets.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
No 24h movement is available yet.
The current displayed probability is 0%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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7/6/2026
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7/6/2026
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