finance
🔥 Hot⚡ Tight
85%
+7%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T?
24h Vol
$185.2K
Liquidity
$84.9K
Spread
1%
12/31/2027
View marketTechnology
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will DeepSeek have the second best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 0%, $89.9 in 24h volume, and $2.5K in liquidity.
Probability
0%
24h Volume
$89.9
Liquidity
$2.5K
This market asks whether DeepSeek will be the company behind the No. 2 coding model on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard at the end of June 2026. It is worth watching because coding benchmarks can shift as model providers release new versions, and the market is tied to a very specific public ranking rather than general reputation.
The question is not simply whether DeepSeek will be strong in coding, but whether the company that owns the model in second place on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard for the "Text Arena | Coding" tab will be DeepSeek at the check time on June 30, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. The market uses the leaderboard's "Rank" column with style control off, and if two models have the same rank the Arena score is used as the tie-breaker, followed by company name if a tie still remains. In plain English: whoever is listed second on that specific coding leaderboard snapshot determines the outcome.
This market exists because coding-focused model rankings can move as companies ship new models, update existing ones, or improve how their systems perform on programming tasks. DeepSeek is one of the companies in the broader AI model race, so the unresolved question is whether its coding model will be good enough by that deadline to sit just behind the top-ranked competitor on a widely watched public benchmark. Readers care because the answer depends on a narrow leaderboard definition, not on broad claims about model quality.
The price can move if DeepSeek releases a stronger coding model, updates an existing model, or if another lab overtakes or widens its lead on the Chatbot Arena coding leaderboard. Changes to the Arena ranking itself also matter, since the market depends on the exact leaderboard position at the specified check time, including tie-break rules based on score and company name. Any correction, re-ranking, or temporary source outage on the leaderboard could affect expectations if it changes who is shown in second place when the market resolves.
Related markets
+7%
24h Vol
$185.2K
Liquidity
$84.9K
Spread
1%
12/31/2027
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 0% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Before resolution, the key thing to verify is the exact source: the "Text Arena | Coding" tab on Chatbot Arena with style control off, checked at June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Readers should pay attention to the rank shown in the "Rank" column, then the underlying Arena score if there is a tie, because those rules decide which company counts as second. The market description also says that if the leaderboard is unavailable at check time, it stays open until the source returns, so the resolution depends on the first usable snapshot after service is restored. The end date shown on the page is June 30, 2026, but the important resolution moment is the noon ET leaderboard check.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will DeepSeek have the second best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 0%, $89.9 in 24h volume, and $2.5K in liquidity.
Track live technology prediction markets focused on AI, major tech events, product launches, innovation forecasts, and emerging industry trends.
Yes
0.5%
No
99.6%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 30, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the second-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab for "Coding" is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Coding" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/coding-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
No 24h movement is available yet.
The current displayed probability is 0%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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