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Iran closes its airspace by June 15?
24h Vol
$1.4M
Liquidity
$1.1M
Spread
0%
6/15/2026
View marketPolitics
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Ebba Busch be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?. The market currently shows a live probability of 0%, $290.1K in 24h volume, and $27.4K in liquidity.
Probability
0%
24h Volume
$290.1K
Liquidity
$27.4K
This market asks whether Ebba Busch will become the next person to be officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Sweden after the 2026 parliamentary election. It is worth watching because Sweden’s next government will depend on election results, coalition talks, and who can win parliamentary support—not just which party finishes first. The market is specifically about Busch herself, not simply whether her party gains influence.
Sweden’s parliamentary election is scheduled for September 13, 2026, and the market resolves to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister after that election. Ebba Busch is a leading Swedish politician and the leader of the Christian Democrats, so her chances here depend on whether she can emerge as the person formally appointed to lead the government. Interim or caretaker prime ministers do not count; the person must actually take office.
The uncertainty comes from Sweden’s parliamentary system, where election results do not automatically decide the prime minister. A candidate needs enough support, direct or indirect, from the Riksdag and must be able to assemble a governing arrangement that can be appointed and then assume office. Readers care because this market reflects whether Busch can move from party leader to the country’s top executive role, which would require a political path that is not guaranteed by the election alone.
Official statements from party leaders about post-election cooperation, coalition agreements, or support for a governing bloc would matter a lot here. So would changes in polling or seat projections that suggest whether the Christian Democrats and their allies could help Busch clear the parliamentary hurdles to become prime minister. Any announcement from the Government of Sweden, the Riksdag, or credible reporting that identifies another likely successor after the election could also shift expectations quickly.
Related markets
+91.9%
24h Vol
$1.4M
Liquidity
$1.1M
Spread
0%
6/15/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 0% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
The key things to verify are the election date, the formal appointment process, and who is actually sworn in as prime minister after the vote. The market’s own rules say the source of truth is official information from the Government of Sweden, with credible reporting used if needed, and that the result must be the next individual who officially assumes office. If no one has taken office by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to Other, so prolonged coalition deadlock would be important to watch.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Ebba Busch be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?. The market currently shows a live probability of 0%, $290.1K in 24h volume, and $27.4K in liquidity.
Track political prediction markets, election probabilities, and real-time political forecasting trends across major global events and government decisions.
Yes
0.5%
No
99.6%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Sep 13, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and assumes office as Prime Minister of Sweden following the next parliamentary election. To count for resolution, the individual must officially assume office. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister assumes office by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Sweden; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is relatively deep for a prediction market page, so quoted prices may be more reliable than very thin markets.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
No 24h movement is available yet.
The current displayed probability is 0%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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