
+7%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T?
24h Vol
$185.5K
Liquidity
$72.7K
Spread
1%
12/31/2027
View marketTechnology
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will gemini-3.5-flash be the best AI model on June 13, 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 0%, $333.3 in 24h volume, and $4.3K in liquidity.
Probability
0%
24h Volume
$333.3
Liquidity
$4.3K
This market asks whether Gemini 3.5 Flash will be the top-ranked model on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard at the June 13, 2026 check time. It is worth watching because this is a public, comparison-based ranking that can change as new models are added, evaluated, or re-ordered by Arena scoring.
The question is not whether Gemini 3.5 Flash is a strong model in general, but whether it will be the number-one entry on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard when the "Text Arena | Overall" table is checked at 12:00 PM ET on June 13, 2026. The market resolves using the "Rank" column on the leaderboard page with style control turned off, and if ties occur the rules fall back to Arena score and then alphabetical order among the listed model names. Any model not named in the market is treated as "Other."
Chatbot Arena rankings can shift because the leaderboard reflects live comparisons rather than a fixed product release schedule. Gemini 3.5 Flash could finish first if its score stays ahead of rivals, but the market is also pricing the chance that another named model overtakes it or that a tie is broken against it. The uncertainty comes from both the model race itself and the exact leaderboard snapshot used for settlement.
The biggest price-moving developments would be changes in the Chatbot Arena leaderboard order before the June 13 check time, especially if Gemini 3.5 Flash loses the top spot or a competing model closes in on its score. New model additions can matter for the table even though no new model will be added to this market, because the underlying leaderboard can still change and affect who sits at rank one. Any tie at the top would make the tiebreak rules especially important, since Arena score and then alphabetical order decide which model is first.
The current market price implies roughly a 0% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
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+7%
24h Vol
$185.5K
Liquidity
$72.7K
Spread
1%
12/31/2027
View marketReaders should verify the exact leaderboard page, the "Text Arena | Overall" tab, and the "Rank" column with style control off, because those details control settlement. The critical check time is 12:00 PM ET on June 13, 2026, even though the market end date is shown separately, so the official snapshot at that moment is what matters. If the leaderboard source is unavailable at check time, the market rules say the market will remain open, so any ambiguity about availability or tab formatting is worth watching carefully.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will gemini-3.5-flash be the best AI model on June 13, 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 0%, $333.3 in 24h volume, and $4.3K in liquidity.
Track live technology prediction markets focused on AI, major tech events, product launches, innovation forecasts, and emerging industry trends.
Yes
0.2%
No
99.8%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 13, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 0%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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