
-8%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
24h Vol
$67.1K
Liquidity
$101.5K
Spread
0%
12/31/2026
View marketFinance
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,800 by end of June?. The market currently shows a live probability of 3%, $7.6K in 24h volume, and $13.9K in liquidity.
Probability
3%
24h Volume
$7.6K
Liquidity
$13.9K
This market asks whether CME Gold futures will print an official settlement at or above $4,800 on an active-month contract at any point before the end of June 2026. It is a narrow question about the CME settlement process, not intraday trading, so the key is what CME publishes at the close of each eligible trading day.
The contract centers on Gold (GC) futures on CME and uses the exchange’s official settlement price for the Active Month, which is the nearest eligible delivery month that is not the spot month. It resolves Yes if that published settlement reaches $4,800 or higher on any trading day from market creation through the final trading day of June 2026; otherwise it resolves No. Because the rule keys off the Active Month, readers should pay attention to the contract rollover dates, since the relevant month can change automatically over time.
Gold is a highly watched asset because it often reacts to inflation expectations, real interest rates, dollar moves, central bank demand, and periods of market stress. The uncertainty here is whether those forces will be strong enough to push the CME front-month gold settlement to an unusually high threshold before June ends, and the market is pricing disagreement about whether that level is reachable within the deadline.
The biggest price-moving developments are changes in the gold futures settlement itself, especially if the front-month contract approaches the $4,800 level as June 2026 gets closer. Because the trigger is an official CME settlement, a strong close on a valid trading day matters far more than an intraday spike, and an Active Month rollover could also change which contract is being watched. Broader moves in monetary policy expectations, inflation data, the U.S. dollar, and risk sentiment can matter indirectly because they influence gold futures pricing.
Related markets

-8%
24h Vol
$67.1K
Liquidity
$101.5K
Spread
0%
12/31/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 3% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Readers should verify the official CME settlement page for the Active Month on each trading day, since only the first published settlement for that day counts. The important details are the $4,800 threshold, the Active Month definition, and the final trading day of June 2026; weekends, holidays, and market closures do not count. If CME later issues corrections, the market rule says the first published settlement is what matters, so the original published value is the one to watch.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,800 by end of June?. The market currently shows a live probability of 3%, $7.6K in 24h volume, and $13.9K in liquidity.
Track live finance prediction markets focused on interest rates, inflation, stock market events, central bank decisions, and global financial forecasting trends.
Yes
3.4%
No
96.7%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 30, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official CME settlement price for the Active Month (front month) of Gold (GC) futures is equal to or above the listed price on any trading day between market creation and the final trading day of June 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". For CME Gold (GC) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month changes automatically on the contract's First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month. Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count. Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract. Only days on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored. This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is relatively deep for a prediction market page, so quoted prices may be more reliable than very thin markets.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 3%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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