
+3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June?
24h Vol
$59.1K
Liquidity
$64.6K
Spread
1%
7/1/2026
View marketFinance
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,900 by end of June?. The market currently shows a live probability of 5%, $69.7K in 24h volume, and $18.7K in liquidity.
Probability
5%
24h Volume
$69.7K
Liquidity
$18.7K
This market is asking whether the active CME Gold futures contract, symbol GC, will settle at $4,900 or higher on at least one trading day before the end of June 2026. Because it keys off CME’s official settlement price rather than intraday spikes, the question is less about a brief price burst and more about whether gold can hold an exceptionally high settled level.
The contract resolves "Yes" if the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures is equal to or above $4,900 on any included trading day from market creation through the final trading day of June 2026. The Active Month means the nearest eligible CME delivery month in the gold cycle that is not the spot month, and it can roll automatically when CME’s First Position Date changes. Only the first published CME settlement for that day counts, and weekends, holidays, and other days without an official settlement are ignored.
Gold is one of the most closely watched global assets because it reacts to inflation expectations, interest-rate policy, currency moves, central-bank demand, and periods of stress or uncertainty. A $4,900 settlement would sit far above ordinary trading ranges, so the market is pricing disagreement over whether gold can reach and sustain that level before the June deadline. The current order book shows a wide tilt toward "No," but there is still some interest in the possibility of an outsized move.
The biggest movers here are changes in the CME Gold settlement itself, especially on days when the front-month contract approaches major round-number levels. Fresh macro data, Federal Reserve guidance, sharp moves in real yields or the U.S. dollar, and risk-off market swings can all matter if they push gold futures materially higher or lower. Because the rule uses the active front month, a contract roll or a sharp change in the nearest eligible delivery month can also affect whether the market gets a qualifying settlement.
Related markets

+3%
24h Vol
$59.1K
Liquidity
$64.6K
Spread
1%
7/1/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 5% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Readers should check CME’s official settlement page for the Active Month of GC, not news headlines or intraday charts, because only the published settlement price counts. The important details are the contract month in force on each day, the exact settlement shown by CME when first published, and the final trading day of June 2026. If CME later corrects a number, the market rules say the first published settlement for that day controls, so that is the version to verify.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,900 by end of June?. The market currently shows a live probability of 5%, $69.7K in 24h volume, and $18.7K in liquidity.
Track live finance prediction markets focused on interest rates, inflation, stock market events, central bank decisions, and global financial forecasting trends.
Yes
4.5%
No
95.5%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 30, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official CME settlement price for the Active Month (front month) of Gold (GC) futures is equal to or above the listed price on any trading day between market creation and the final trading day of June 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". For CME Gold (GC) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month changes automatically on the contract's First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month. Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count. Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract. Only days on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored. This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is relatively deep for a prediction market page, so quoted prices may be more reliable than very thin markets.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 5%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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