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Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
24h Vol
$549.1K
Liquidity
$245.2K
Spread
0%
6/30/2026
View marketFinance
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of June?. The market currently shows a live probability of 3%, $73.1K in 24h volume, and $34.5K in liquidity.
Probability
3%
24h Volume
$73.1K
Liquidity
$34.5K
This market asks whether CME Gold futures, specifically the active front-month contract labeled GC, will settle at or above $5,000 at any point before the end of June 2026. It is worth watching because it is tied to an official exchange settlement, not an intraday quote, so the answer depends on CME’s published daily benchmark rather than headline price swings.
The underlying question is whether the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures reaches $5,000 or higher on any trading day from market creation through the final trading day of June 2026. The contract is the nearest eligible delivery month that is not the spot month, and it rolls automatically according to CME’s First Position Date rules. The market resolves "Yes" if that settlement price is equal to or above $5,000 on any included trading day; otherwise it resolves "No".
Gold is a widely watched macro asset, so a $5,000 settlement would mark an unusually high move for a front-month CME contract and would likely reflect a strong combination of inflation concerns, currency moves, central-bank demand, or a broader risk-off bid. The uncertainty here is not whether gold can trade near that level intraday, but whether the official CME settlement for the active contract can print there before June ends. Traders are effectively disagreeing about how far gold can run over the next several months and whether that move is strong enough to show up in the daily benchmark.
The most direct market movers are changes in the underlying gold price and anything that pushes the front-month CME settlement higher, such as sharp shifts in real yields, the U.S. dollar, inflation expectations, or geopolitical stress. Because the market keys off the active contract’s official settlement, a roll into a new active month can matter if pricing differs across contract months or if the front-month curve is unusually steep or backwardated. A single trading day with a CME settlement at or above $5,000 would be enough to resolve the market "Yes," so late-period volatility matters more than an isolated intraday spike.
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24h Vol
$549.1K
Liquidity
$245.2K
Spread
0%
6/30/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 3% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Readers should watch the official CME settlement page for Gold (GC) futures, because that is the source of truth and only the first published settlement for each trading day counts. The key details to verify are the active contract month, the daily settlement price, and the final trading day cutoff at the end of June 2026. Weekend and holiday closures do not count, and intraday highs, last trades, or later corrections are irrelevant under the market rules.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of June?. The market currently shows a live probability of 3%, $73.1K in 24h volume, and $34.5K in liquidity.
Track live finance prediction markets focused on interest rates, inflation, stock market events, central bank decisions, and global financial forecasting trends.
Yes
2.7%
No
97.3%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 30, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official CME settlement price for the Active Month (front month) of Gold (GC) futures is equal to or above the listed price on any trading day between market creation and the final trading day of June 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". For CME Gold (GC) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month changes automatically on the contract's First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month. Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count. Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract. Only days on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored. This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is relatively deep for a prediction market page, so quoted prices may be more reliable than very thin markets.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 3%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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