
+9.7%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
24h Vol
$144.6K
Liquidity
$143.3K
Spread
0%
12/31/2026
View marketFinance
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,100 by end of June?. The market currently shows a live probability of 2%, $43.2K in 24h volume, and $17.6K in liquidity.
Probability
2%
24h Volume
$43.2K
Liquidity
$17.6K
This market asks whether CME Gold futures will print an official settlement price at or above $5,100 on the active contract month at any point before the end of June 2026. It is tied to a very specific CME benchmark, so the question is not about intraday spikes or news headlines, but about the exchange’s published settlement for the front month contract.
Gold (GC) is the CME’s standard gold futures contract, and the “Active Month” is the nearest eligible delivery month under CME’s listed cycle. The market resolves Yes if the official CME settlement price for that active month reaches $5,100 or higher on any trading day between market creation and the final trading day in June 2026; otherwise it resolves No. The deadline matters because the contract only cares about settlement prices published through the end of June 2026, not after that month.
The uncertainty here is whether gold can reach an unusually high settlement level on CME before the June 2026 cutoff. Gold futures can move sharply on shifts in inflation expectations, interest-rate policy, the dollar, geopolitical stress, and broad demand for safe-haven assets, but this market uses one narrow threshold and one official exchange benchmark rather than a general view on gold prices. Readers are essentially pricing disagreement over whether that specific CME settlement level is reachable in time.
A sustained move in CME gold futures toward the $5,100 level would likely be the main driver, especially if it shows up in the active month settlement rather than just intraday trading. Because the market resolves on the first official CME settlement at or above the threshold, a single strong settlement day can be decisive; conversely, prices that briefly trade above $5,100 but settle below it will not count. Changes in the active month as CME rolls from one delivery month to the next can also matter, since the rule follows the front month automatically.
Related markets

+9.7%
24h Vol
$144.6K
Liquidity
$143.3K
Spread
0%
12/31/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 2% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Watch the CME settlement page for the active month of GC futures, not spot gold quotes or chart highs, and verify which delivery month is currently designated as the Active Month. The key source of truth is the official CME settlement price first published for each trading day, and the market ignores weekends, holidays, and days without an official settlement. Readers should also keep an eye on the June 2026 final trading day, because the market stops counting after that point even if gold later moves above the threshold.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,100 by end of June?. The market currently shows a live probability of 2%, $43.2K in 24h volume, and $17.6K in liquidity.
Track live finance prediction markets focused on interest rates, inflation, stock market events, central bank decisions, and global financial forecasting trends.
Yes
1.9%
No
98.1%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 30, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official CME settlement price for the Active Month (front month) of Gold (GC) futures is equal to or above the listed price on any trading day between market creation and the final trading day of June 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". For CME Gold (GC) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month changes automatically on the contract's First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month. Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count. Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract. Only days on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored. This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is relatively deep for a prediction market page, so quoted prices may be more reliable than very thin markets.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
No 24h movement is available yet.
The current displayed probability is 2%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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