
+0.3%
Will Elon Musk buy OnlyFans?
24h Vol
$672K
Liquidity
$17.8K
Spread
0%
6/30/2026
View marketFinance
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,200 by end of June?. The market currently shows a live probability of 1%, $30.6K in 24h volume, and $19.4K in liquidity.
Probability
1%
24h Volume
$30.6K
Liquidity
$19.4K
This market asks whether CME Gold futures will print a settlement at or above $5,200 before the end of June 2026. Because the contract uses the official CME settlement for the active front month, the key question is not an intraday spike but a published settlement price that actually reaches the threshold.
The event is about Gold (GC) futures traded on CME, specifically the active month contract that changes with CME’s delivery cycle. The market resolves Yes if the official CME settlement price for that active month is equal to or above $5,200 on any trading day from market creation through the final trading day of June 2026; otherwise it resolves No. Only CME’s published settlement price counts, and the first settlement published for that day is the one used for resolution.
Gold can move sharply when investors react to inflation expectations, central-bank policy, currency moves, geopolitical stress, or changes in safe-haven demand. A $5,200 settlement would be a major price milestone for the front-month futures contract, so the market is pricing disagreement about whether gold can reach that level within the deadline. The June 2026 cutoff matters because even a strong move after that date would not qualify.
The biggest price-moving developments are those that change the outlook for gold itself: shifts in Federal Reserve policy expectations, changes in U.S. yields or the dollar, and sudden risk-off periods that increase demand for haven assets. Because the resolution depends on a CME settlement, a late-session move that carries into the official close matters more than an intraday high. Any change in which contract is the active month also matters, since the market always follows the nearest eligible CME delivery month rather than a single fixed futures contract.
Related markets

+0.3%
24h Vol
$672K
Liquidity
$17.8K
Spread
0%
6/30/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 1% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Readers should check the official CME settlement page for the Gold (GC) active month and confirm the date and contract month being used at the time. The main rule to verify is that only the first published official settlement for each trading day counts, and weekends, holidays, and closure days are ignored. It is also important to watch whether the active month rolls over, since the contract referenced by the market changes automatically under CME’s first-position-date schedule.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,200 by end of June?. The market currently shows a live probability of 1%, $30.6K in 24h volume, and $19.4K in liquidity.
Track live finance prediction markets focused on interest rates, inflation, stock market events, central bank decisions, and global financial forecasting trends.
Yes
0.9%
No
99.1%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 30, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official CME settlement price for the Active Month (front month) of Gold (GC) futures is equal to or above the listed price on any trading day between market creation and the final trading day of June 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". For CME Gold (GC) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month changes automatically on the contract's First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month. Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count. Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract. Only days on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored. This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is relatively deep for a prediction market page, so quoted prices may be more reliable than very thin markets.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 1%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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