
+0.2%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
24h Vol
$91.1K
Liquidity
$120.5K
Spread
0%
12/31/2026
View marketFinance
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,700 by end of June?. The market currently shows a live probability of 1%, $45 in 24h volume, and $26.1K in liquidity.
Probability
1%
24h Volume
$45
Liquidity
$26.1K
This market asks whether CME Gold futures, using the active front-month contract, will settle at or above $5,700 on any trading day before the end of June 2026. Because gold futures are a widely watched benchmark for the metal’s price, the question is really about whether the market can make a very large move above a high round-number threshold within that month.
The contract is tied to Gold (GC) futures on CME, not to spot gold prices or an intraday spike. It resolves to Yes only if the official CME settlement price for the Active Month contract is at least $5,700 on any eligible trading day by the final trading day of June 2026. The market definition also matters: the Active Month changes automatically according to CME’s delivery cycle, so readers should pay attention to which futures month is actually designated as active when June arrives.
The uncertainty is whether gold can reach an unusually elevated settlement level by a specific deadline, and that makes the market a focused test of expectations around inflation, central bank policy, safe-haven demand, and broader commodity momentum. The disagreement being priced is not just about gold direction, but about whether the contract can clear a very high threshold on an official settlement basis before time runs out.
Moves in the market will be driven by gold-specific catalysts that affect futures settlements, especially shifts in interest-rate expectations, changes in risk sentiment, and any sharp rally in precious metals. Because resolution depends on CME’s official settlement price for the active contract, the relevant price action is a closing settlement above $5,700, not an intraday high that later fades. A contract roll can also matter, since the active month changes automatically and the threshold must be hit by whatever contract is active on the day in question.
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+0.2%
24h Vol
$91.1K
Liquidity
$120.5K
Spread
0%
12/31/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 1% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Readers should verify the CME settlement page for the active Gold (GC) contract, because only the first published official settlement for each trading day counts. The market ignores weekends, holidays, and other days when CME does not publish a settlement, and it does not use last trades, highs, lows, or indicative prices. The key details to watch are the active month designation, the final trading day of June 2026, and whether CME later issues any correction after the initial settlement post, since the rules say the first published figure controls resolution.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,700 by end of June?. The market currently shows a live probability of 1%, $45 in 24h volume, and $26.1K in liquidity.
Track live finance prediction markets focused on interest rates, inflation, stock market events, central bank decisions, and global financial forecasting trends.
Yes
0.7%
No
99.3%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 30, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day, the official CME settlement price for the Active Month (front month) of Gold (GC) futures is equal to or above the listed price by the final trading day of June 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". For CME Gold (GC) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month changes automatically on the contract's First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month. Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count. Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract. Only days on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored. This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is relatively deep for a prediction market page, so quoted prices may be more reliable than very thin markets.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
No 24h movement is available yet.
The current displayed probability is 1%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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