economy
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Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
24h Vol
$42.6K
Liquidity
$188.5K
Spread
0%
12/31/2026
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Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Goldman Sachs (GS) Q2 investment banking fees be above $2.35B?. The market currently shows a live probability of 95%, $163.5 in 24h volume, and $5.1K in liquidity.
Probability
95%
24h Volume
$163.5
Liquidity
$5.1K
This market asks whether Goldman Sachs will report second-quarter investment banking fees above $2.35 billion in its official earnings materials. It is a focused read on one line item inside a major Wall Street earnings release, so the contract will move mainly on the exact revenue figure Goldman publishes rather than on broader market commentary.
Goldman Sachs, often abbreviated GS, is one of the largest global investment banks, and its quarterly earnings materials are the source of truth here. The question is simple: when Goldman reports its upcoming second fiscal quarter, will the investment banking fees number come in above $2.35 billion? The market resolves from the company’s official earnings materials, including press releases, investor presentations, and filings, and only the most numerically precise reported version counts.
Investment banking fees can swing from quarter to quarter based on advisory work, equity underwriting, and debt underwriting activity, so there is real uncertainty around the final figure. Readers may care because this metric is a clean snapshot of deal-making activity at one of the most closely watched banks, and the market is effectively pricing whether Goldman’s reported fee line will clear a specific threshold. The contract is currently leaning strongly toward Yes, but the reported number is what ultimately matters.
The biggest price moves will come from Goldman’s earnings release, especially any table or slide that lists investment banking fees for the quarter. If the company reports a number just above or below $2.35 billion, or gives a range whose midpoint falls on one side of the line, that will matter immediately. Any official filing, investor deck, or earnings webcast transcript that clarifies the metric could also shift expectations if the initial materials are ambiguous or omit the figure.
Related markets
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24h Vol
$42.6K
Liquidity
$188.5K
Spread
0%
12/31/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 95% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Watch Goldman Sachs’s official earnings date and the exact wording of the quarter’s investor materials, because the market resolves only from those documents or, if needed, the webcast transcript. The deadline in the rules is August 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET; if Goldman does not release the relevant quarterly materials by then, the market resolves No. The key ambiguity to check is whether the company reports the metric directly, as a range, or under a slightly different label, since only the specified investment banking fees figure counts.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Goldman Sachs (GS) Q2 investment banking fees be above $2.35B?. The market currently shows a live probability of 95%, $163.5 in 24h volume, and $5.1K in liquidity.
Track live finance prediction markets focused on interest rates, inflation, stock market events, central bank decisions, and global financial forecasting trends.
Yes
95.3%
No
4.8%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jul 14, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Goldman Sachs's investment banking fees for the upcoming second fiscal quarter, as reported in its official company earnings materials, is above the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered. If the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to "No". If the specified company does not release quarterly earnings materials for the specified quarter by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". If the specified metric is reported as a range rather than a specific number, the midpoint of the range will be used for resolution of this market. The resolution source for this market is Goldman Sachs's official company earnings materials, including press releases, investor presentations, and regulatory filings. If the specified metric is not reported in these materials, recordings or transcripts of the company's earnings webcast may also be used. Note: This market will resolve based on the most numerically precise version of the specified metric reported in the company's official earnings materials. Only the specified metric will be considered; alternate versions that differ in definition or scope from the specified metric will not be considered.
Probability signal
The current price implies a strong favorite, so new information would need to be meaningful to move the market sharply.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 95%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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