finance
🔥 Hot⚡ Tight
85%
+7%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T?
24h Vol
$185.5K
Liquidity
$85.2K
Spread
1%
12/31/2027
View marketTechnology
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Google have the second best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 3%, $84 in 24h volume, and $1.5K in liquidity.
Probability
3%
24h Volume
$84
Liquidity
$1.5K
This market asks whether Google will be the company with the second-best coding model on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard at the end of June 2026. It is closely tied to how Google’s coding-focused AI models stack up against rivals such as OpenAI, Anthropic, xAI, and others on a public comparison table that many readers use as a rough benchmark.
The specific question is not whether Google has a strong coding model, but whether Google will sit in second place on the "Text Arena | Coding" leaderboard when it is checked on June 30, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. The resolution uses the "Rank" column on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard with style control off, and if ranks are tied, the market says to break ties by Arena score and then by company name order if needed. In plain terms: the market resolves "Yes" only if the model from Google is the runner-up on that leaderboard at the check time.
This market captures uncertainty about how quickly Google’s coding model family can keep pace with the best systems in a fast-moving AI benchmark race. Because the leaderboard reflects comparative model performance rather than a single company statement, the outcome depends on future model releases, updates, and ranking changes across the whole field. Readers care because a second-place finish would suggest Google remains near the top of coding AI, while a lower placement would indicate other companies have pulled ahead on this specific benchmark.
Price can move if Google announces or ships a materially better coding model before the June 2026 check date, especially one that appears likely to rank near the top of the coding leaderboard. It can also move if competing labs release stronger coding systems that push Google out of second place, or if the Arena leaderboard methodology, available model set, or style-control setup changes in a way that affects the rank order. Since the market resolves from the leaderboard at a fixed time, late updates in the days or hours before the check are especially relevant.
Related markets
+7%
24h Vol
$185.5K
Liquidity
$85.2K
Spread
1%
12/31/2027
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 3% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
The key item to verify is the exact leaderboard view specified in the rules: the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard, the Coding tab, style control off, checked at June 30, 2026 12:00 PM ET. Readers should also watch for any posted tie-break details or leaderboard availability issues, because the market says it will wait if the source is down and will use the first available check afterward. One more practical point: the market text shown here is truncated at the end of the resolution section, so the full contract language should be reviewed for any additional fallback rules if the source becomes permanently unavailable.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Google have the second best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 3%, $84 in 24h volume, and $1.5K in liquidity.
Track live technology prediction markets focused on AI, major tech events, product launches, innovation forecasts, and emerging industry trends.
Yes
2.9%
No
97.1%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 30, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the second-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab for "Coding" is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Coding" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/coding-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is wider, so the headline probability may be less precise than it looks.
Recent movement
The 24h move is notable, so recent news or market activity may have changed trader expectations.
The current displayed probability is 3%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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