
-1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T?
24h Vol
$50.6K
Liquidity
$94.2K
Spread
1%
12/31/2027
View marketTechnology
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 1 and June 7, 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 1%, $775.6 in 24h volume, and $6.2K in liquidity.
Probability
1%
24h Volume
$775.6
Liquidity
$6.2K
This market asks whether OpenAI will make a product called GPT-5.6 publicly available during the week of June 1 through June 7, 2026. It is worth watching because the question is not just whether a new model is mentioned, but whether OpenAI actually releases something that meets the market’s specific public-access rules.
The event window is June 1 to June 7, 2026, with the market resolving by the calendar date in Eastern Time on which OpenAI first makes GPT-5.6 available to the general public. The title points to a named product version, and the rules also allow closely related successor labels such as GPT-5.7 or GPT-5.8 if OpenAI treats them as part of the same progression from GPT-5.5. A qualifying release must be publicly accessible, not private or closed beta, and it must be clearly identified on OpenAI’s official site or in official announcements.
The uncertainty here is about timing and definition. OpenAI could release a new model family, a revised flagship version, a specialized tool such as a Codex or Transcribe variant, or a cost-efficient mini/nano option, but only some of those outcomes count under this market’s rules. Readers may care because product naming and rollout style matter: a public launch, an open beta, or an official waitlist can satisfy the market, while a private preview or a mislabeled placeholder will not.
The price would move most on official OpenAI announcements, product pages, or launch notes that clearly name a qualifying GPT-5.6-type release and make it publicly accessible. A near-term increase in attention could also come from evidence that OpenAI is preparing a public rollout window, but only an actual public launch within the June 1–7 window would resolve this market as Yes. By contrast, announcements of GPT-6, internal testing, private access, or a model that does not fit the stated naming and accessibility rules would push the market toward No.
Related markets

-1%
24h Vol
$50.6K
Liquidity
$94.2K
Spread
1%
12/31/2027
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 1% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Before the market resolves, the key things to verify are the exact date, the exact model label, and whether the release is truly public. The source of truth is OpenAI’s official information, with credible reporting used only as additional confirmation if needed. Because the rules are precise, readers should check whether the model is explicitly accessible to the general public and whether it is a qualifying GPT-5.6 successor rather than a separate flagship like GPT-6 or a private preview that does not count.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 1 and June 7, 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 1%, $775.6 in 24h volume, and $6.2K in liquidity.
Track live technology prediction markets focused on AI, major tech events, product launches, innovation forecasts, and emerging industry trends.
Yes
0.5%
No
99.5%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 28, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI's GPT-5.6 model is made available to the general public. GPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward this market) Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 1%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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