
+7.5%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T?
24h Vol
$185.1K
Liquidity
$78K
Spread
2%
12/31/2027
View marketTechnology
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 84%, $123.2 in 24h volume, and $4.4K in liquidity.
Probability
84%
24h Volume
$123.2
Liquidity
$4.4K
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 84%, $123.2 in 24h volume, and $4.4K in liquidity.
Track live technology prediction markets focused on AI, major tech events, product launches, innovation forecasts, and emerging industry trends.
Yes
83.5%
No
16.5%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Dec 31, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-6 model is made available to the general public by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," GPT-6 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public. GPT-6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-6 (e.g. ChatGPT-6o would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to GPT-5, similar to the progression from GPT-3 to GPT-4. Products labeled as GPT-5.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Related markets

+7.5%
24h Vol
$185.1K
Liquidity
$78K
Spread
2%
12/31/2027
View marketProbability signal
The current price implies a strong favorite, so new information would need to be meaningful to move the market sharply.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 84%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

+3.8%
24h Vol
$144.9K
Liquidity
$14.9K
Spread
4%
6/15/2026
View market
+1.9%
24h Vol
$62.7K
Liquidity
$110K
Spread
0%
6/30/2026
View market
+1.8%
24h Vol
$33.2K
Liquidity
$60.4K
Spread
0%
6/30/2026
View market
0%
24h Vol
$68.5K
Liquidity
$35.8K
Spread
0%
Live
View market
--
24h Vol
$408.6K
Liquidity
$44K
Spread
0%
12/31/2027
View market