Sports
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?. The market currently shows a live probability of 0%, $585.5K in 24h volume, and $9.3M in liquidity.
Probability
0%
24h Volume
$585.5K
Liquidity
$9.3M
This market asks whether Iran will win the 2026 FIFA World Cup, the top international tournament in men’s soccer. It is a straightforward title question with a clear settlement rule: the winner of the tournament determines the outcome, and Iran can be resolved to “No” as soon as it is eliminated.
The market is about Iran’s national team in the 2026 FIFA World Cup, which is scheduled to run through July 2026. If Iran wins the tournament, the market resolves to “Yes”; if Iran is eliminated at any stage under FIFA’s rules, it resolves to “No.” If the tournament is permanently canceled or still not completed by October 13, 2026 at 11:59 PM, the market resolves to “Other.”
There is uncertainty because World Cup winners are decided through a long tournament with many matches, and a national team must survive group play and knockout rounds to take the title. Iran is a recognized international side, but winning the entire World Cup is an extremely difficult outcome, so the market is pricing a very low-probability event against a much more likely elimination path.
The price can move if Iran’s squad status changes, especially around roster announcements, injuries, suspensions, coaching decisions, or confirmed group-stage opponents and schedule details. Match results during the tournament will matter most: any loss or elimination would end the “Yes” case immediately under the rules, while an unexpected run of wins would be the main driver in the opposite direction.
The current market price implies roughly a 0% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Related markets
Readers should watch the official FIFA tournament bracket, Iran’s match results, and the date the competition is expected to finish. The key settlement detail is that the market uses FIFA’s rules and official information as the main source of truth, with credible reporting only as a backup; if the event is canceled or not completed by the stated deadline, it goes to “Other.”
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?. The market currently shows a live probability of 0%, $585.5K in 24h volume, and $9.3M in liquidity.
Track live sports prediction markets focused on championships, tournaments, player performances, team outcomes, and major sporting events worldwide.
Yes
0.2%
No
99.9%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jul 20, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve according to the national team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is relatively deep for a prediction market page, so quoted prices may be more reliable than very thin markets.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
No 24h movement is available yet.
The current displayed probability is 0%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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7/6/2026
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7/6/2026
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