Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

What this market is about

The market resolves to "Yes" only if Iraq wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup, based on the official FIFA winner. If Iraq is eliminated at any point under FIFA rules, the market resolves to "No" immediately because it would no longer be possible for Iraq to win. If the tournament is canceled or still not completed by October 13, 2026 at 11:59 PM, the market resolves to "Other" instead.

Why the market exists

Iraq is a national team with a real chance to compete in FIFA qualifying, but winning the entire World Cup is a much higher bar than simply making the tournament. That gap between qualification, advancement, and actually taking the title is what the market is pricing: readers are weighing whether Iraq can even reach the finals, then survive the expanded World Cup format, group stage, and knockout rounds. The market stays interesting because the answer depends on many steps, not one single game.

What can move the price

The biggest price-moving events are Iraq’s qualification path, the tournament draw, and any official FIFA elimination result once the World Cup begins. A strong qualifying campaign, a favorable group, or credible signs that Iraq will field its best available squad can make the market look less impossible; by contrast, a loss in qualifying, a difficult draw, injuries to key players, or an official knockout elimination would push the market toward a final "No". Since the market resolves immediately when Iraq can no longer win, each match with knockout implications matters.

How to read the current probability