Sports
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Jay-Z perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?. The market currently shows a live probability of 12%, and $399.5 in liquidity.
Probability
12%
24h Volume
$0
Liquidity
$399.5
This market asks whether Jay-Z will be one of the live performers at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show. It matters because FIFA has already confirmed the final will feature the first World Cup halftime show, and any artist attached to that stage would be part of a highly visible global broadcast from MetLife Stadium in New Jersey.
The question is narrowly about Jay-Z performing live and in person during the halftime show at the FIFA World Cup Final on July 19, 2026. A qualifying appearance can be a guest spot or any live participation during the show; he does not need to perform a full set for the market to resolve Yes. If the event is cancelled, postponed, or pushed past September 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves No.
The uncertainty is not about whether the halftime show exists — FIFA has confirmed it — but about which artist, if any, will actually appear on the day. Jay-Z is a high-profile name with strong ties to major live entertainment, so the market is really pricing the chance that his name ends up on the final halftime lineup and that he appears on camera in time. The displayed bids and asks also show that traders are not treating a Jay-Z appearance as certain, which leaves room for a meaningful gap between rumor and confirmed participation.
The biggest price moves would come from official halftime-show announcements, artist lineup releases, rehearsals, or footage that clearly shows Jay-Z involved in the production or on stage. Because the resolution allows guest appearances, even a short on-field cameo would matter, while news that another artist or a completely different lineup has been locked in would likely push the market the other way. Any change to the final, the halftime show format, or the schedule could also matter because the market resolves No if the event is cancelled, delayed too long, or rescheduled beyond the cutoff.
Related markets
The current market price implies roughly a 12% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
The key details to verify are the exact halftime-show billing, the final date and location, and whether Jay-Z appears live during the show rather than only being credited backstage or in a producer role. The resolution source is footage of the FIFA World Cup Final halftime show, with credible reporting used as a backup, so a reader should focus on what is visibly shown or officially confirmed on the day. The most important ambiguity risk is a brief guest appearance: even a short live appearance counts, so the question is presence on stage, not performance length.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Jay-Z perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?. The market currently shows a live probability of 12%, and $399.5 in liquidity.
Track live sports prediction markets focused on championships, tournaments, player performances, team outcomes, and major sporting events worldwide.
Yes
11.6%
No
88.4%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jul 19, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
FIFA has confirmed that the first World Cup halftime show will take place at the FIFA World Cup Final on July 19, 2026 at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey. The show will be produced by Global Citizen. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual performs live and in person at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show on July 19, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying performance includes any live appearance during the halftime show, including guest appearances, even if the artist does not perform a full set. If this event is cancelled, postponed, or rescheduled beyond September 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be footage of the FIFA World Cup Final halftime show, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is wider, so the headline probability may be less precise than it looks.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 12%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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7/6/2026
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7/6/2026
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