sports
⚡ Tight
99%
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Roman Safiullin vs. Joao Fonseca: Roman Safiullin vs Joao Fonseca
24h Vol
$647.6K
Liquidity
--
Spread
0%
7/16/2026
View marketSports
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Karolina Muchova win the 2026 Women’s US Open?. The market currently shows a live probability of 2%, $3.9K in 24h volume, and $13.6K in liquidity.
Probability
2%
24h Volume
$3.9K
Liquidity
$13.6K
This market asks whether Karolina Muchova will win the 2026 U.S. Open women’s singles title. Muchova is a top-level tour player, so the question is whether she can survive a two-week Grand Slam draw and emerge as champion at one of tennis’s biggest events. Because the U.S. Open is played on a fixed calendar and settles only when an official winner is declared, the market is tied to a single, clearly defined outcome.
The event is the 2026 U.S. Open Women’s Singles Tournament, scheduled for August 23 to September 13, 2026. The only winning outcome for this market is Karolina Muchova lifting the women’s singles trophy; if another player wins, the answer is No. The rules also say that if Muchova becomes mathematically or procedurally unable to win under the tournament rules, the market can resolve to No even before the final.
Grand Slam tennis is unpredictable because a title run depends on draw position, form, fitness, and week-to-week matchups across several rounds. Muchova’s chances can rise or fall quickly if she is injured, withdraws, is seeded into a difficult section, or runs into a top opponent early. That uncertainty is what the market is pricing: whether she can navigate the full women’s draw and finish as champion in New York.
The biggest price moves will come from official tournament entries, seeding, withdrawals, and any injury or fitness news affecting Muchova or the players around her draw. As the event gets closer, the release of the draw, early-round results, and any indication that she has advanced deep into the tournament can materially change the market. If she is eliminated, retires, or is ruled out by the tournament rules, the market should move sharply toward No.
The current market price implies roughly a 2% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Related markets
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24h Vol
$647.6K
Liquidity
--
Spread
0%
7/16/2026
View marketReaders should watch the official U.S. Open site first, since the market says that is the primary source for settlement. The key things to verify are whether the 2026 women’s singles event is held on schedule, whether a winner is officially declared by September 13, 2026, and whether Karolina Muchova remains eligible throughout the tournament. If the event is cancelled, pushed beyond October 31, 2026, or ends without an official champion, the market resolves to Other rather than Yes or No.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Karolina Muchova win the 2026 Women’s US Open?. The market currently shows a live probability of 2%, $3.9K in 24h volume, and $13.6K in liquidity.
Track live sports prediction markets focused on championships, tournaments, player performances, team outcomes, and major sporting events worldwide.
Yes
2.1%
No
98%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Sep 13, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
The 2026 U.S. Open tennis tournament is scheduled for August 23 - September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to the player that wins the 2026 U.S. Open Women’s Singles Tournament. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed player to win the 2026 U.S. Open Women’s Singles Tournament per the rules of the tournament, the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the 2026 U.S. Open Women’s Singles Tournament is cancelled, postponed after October 31, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Open (https://www.usopen.org/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is relatively deep for a prediction market page, so quoted prices may be more reliable than very thin markets.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 2%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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