finance
⚡ Tight💧 Liquid
10%
+1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June?
24h Vol
$44.7K
Liquidity
$38.2K
Spread
1%
7/1/2026
View marketFinance
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Kroger Q1 identical sales without fuel growth be above 2%?. The market currently shows a live probability of 3%, $4.8K in 24h volume, and $10.9K in liquidity.
Probability
3%
24h Volume
$4.8K
Liquidity
$10.9K
This market asks whether Kroger will report first-quarter fiscal 2026 identical sales excluding fuel growth above 2% in its official earnings materials. That matters because identical sales is one of the clearest gauges of a grocer’s core store performance, and the 2% line gives a simple yes-or-no threshold for how strong the quarter looks on a same-store basis.
Kroger is the U.S. supermarket chain, and this contract resolves on the company’s reported "identical sales without fuel growth" for the first fiscal quarter of 2026. The key question is not whether sales were positive in general, but whether the company’s official earnings release, investor presentation, regulatory filing, or webcast materials show growth above 2% for that specific metric. If Kroger reports the figure as a range, the midpoint is used; if the number lands exactly on a bracket boundary, the higher bracket wins.
Investors and analysts watch identical sales because it strips out store openings, closures, and fuel swings, making it a cleaner read on underlying demand. For Kroger, even small changes around 2% can matter because grocery growth tends to be measured in tight increments, and the market is pricing disagreement about whether the quarter came in strong enough to clear that bar. The contract also reflects uncertainty about what Kroger will choose to disclose and how precisely it will present the metric in its earnings materials.
The price will move most on Kroger’s official quarterly earnings release and any follow-up materials that spell out identical sales without fuel growth. A reported figure above 2% would point toward a Yes resolution, while a number at or below 2% would support No; if the company gives only a range, the midpoint matters for the outcome. Because the resolution source is limited to official company materials, the market can also shift if the metric is omitted entirely or appears only in a transcript or webcast with a precise enough statement.
Related markets
+1%
24h Vol
$44.7K
Liquidity
$38.2K
Spread
1%
7/1/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 3% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Before the June 18, 2026 deadline, readers should check Kroger’s Q1 fiscal 2026 earnings release, investor presentation, and any regulatory filing for the exact wording of identical sales without fuel growth. The most important detail is the company’s own reported number, since later revisions do not count and outside estimates do not control resolution. If Kroger does not publish quarterly earnings materials for that quarter by July 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to the lowest bracket, so the timing of the official release is just as important as the figure itself.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Kroger Q1 identical sales without fuel growth be above 2%?. The market currently shows a live probability of 3%, $4.8K in 24h volume, and $10.9K in liquidity.
Track live finance prediction markets focused on interest rates, inflation, stock market events, central bank decisions, and global financial forecasting trends.
Yes
2.7%
No
97.4%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 18, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve according to Kroger's announced identical sales without fuel growth for the first fiscal quarter of 2026, as reported in its official company earnings materials. The specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered. If the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the specified company does not release quarterly earnings materials for the specified quarter by July 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the specified metric is reported as a range rather than a specific number, the midpoint of the range will be used for resolution of this market. The resolution source for this market is Kroger's official company earnings materials, including press releases, investor presentations, and regulatory filings. If the specified metric is not reported in these materials, recordings or transcripts of the company's earnings webcast may also be used. Note: This market will resolve based on the most numerically precise version of the specified metric reported in the company's official earnings materials. Only the specified metric will be considered; alternate versions that differ in definition or scope from the specified metric will not be considered.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is relatively deep for a prediction market page, so quoted prices may be more reliable than very thin markets.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is wider, so the headline probability may be less precise than it looks.
Recent movement
The 24h move is notable, so recent news or market activity may have changed trader expectations.
The current displayed probability is 3%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
--
24h Vol
$41.3K
Liquidity
$202.1K
Spread
0%
12/31/2026
View market
+0.5%
24h Vol
$51K
Liquidity
$59.4K
Spread
2%
6/30/2026
View market
+0.3%
24h Vol
$49.9K
Liquidity
$46.4K
Spread
0%
6/30/2026
View market
-1%
24h Vol
$57.2K
Liquidity
$60.1K
Spread
1%
12/31/2026
View market-0.2%
24h Vol
$28.4K
Liquidity
$49.7K
Spread
0%
Live
View market