finance
⚡ Tight💧 Liquid
10%
+1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June?
24h Vol
$45.8K
Liquidity
$53.1K
Spread
1%
7/1/2026
View marketFinance
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Kroger Q1 identical sales without fuel growth be below 1%?. The market currently shows a live probability of 49%, $3.4K in 24h volume, and $5.2K in liquidity.
Probability
49%
24h Volume
$3.4K
Liquidity
$5.2K
This market is about one specific number from Kroger’s first-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings materials: identical sales growth excluding fuel. Because that figure can come in above, below, or right around 1%, even a small change in sales momentum can decide the outcome. It is a useful page to watch around Kroger’s next earnings release and any investor materials that repeat or clarify the metric.
Kroger is a major U.S. grocery retailer, and “identical sales without fuel growth” is the company’s comparable-sales measure excluding fuel. The market resolves on the first fiscal quarter of 2026, using the figure reported in Kroger’s official earnings materials such as the press release, investor presentation, or regulatory filing; if the number is not given there, webcast recordings or transcripts may also be used. The question is simply whether that reported growth rate will be below 1% or not.
Comparable sales are closely watched because they show how Kroger’s underlying business is doing, separate from fuel price swings and store openings. A threshold like 1% matters because analysts and market watchers often focus on whether grocery demand is holding steady, slowing, or accelerating. The uncertainty here is not about whether Kroger will report earnings, but where the company’s reported identical-sales figure lands relative to that cutoff.
The main price movers will be Kroger’s official earnings release and any accompanying slide deck or filing that states identical sales without fuel growth. If the company reports the metric as a range, the midpoint is used; if the number sits exactly between two brackets, the market resolves to the higher bracket, so wording and precision matter. Any clarification in the company’s own materials or webcast transcript that changes the most precise reported value could shift how the market resolves.
Related markets
+1%
24h Vol
$45.8K
Liquidity
$53.1K
Spread
1%
7/1/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 49% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Watch for the release of Kroger’s first-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings materials and confirm the exact wording of the comparable-sales metric, since the market uses the most numerically precise version reported by the company. The stated deadline in the market rules is July 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET if the quarterly materials are not released by then, but the market page itself also shows an end date of June 18, 2026, so readers should verify which timing governs the page they are viewing. If the metric is omitted entirely, the rules say the market resolves to the lowest bracket, so the presence or absence of that line in official materials is the key detail to check.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Kroger Q1 identical sales without fuel growth be below 1%?. The market currently shows a live probability of 49%, $3.4K in 24h volume, and $5.2K in liquidity.
Track live finance prediction markets focused on interest rates, inflation, stock market events, central bank decisions, and global financial forecasting trends.
Yes
48.5%
No
51.5%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 18, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve according to Kroger's announced identical sales without fuel growth for the first fiscal quarter of 2026, as reported in its official company earnings materials. The specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered. If the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the specified company does not release quarterly earnings materials for the specified quarter by July 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the specified metric is reported as a range rather than a specific number, the midpoint of the range will be used for resolution of this market. The resolution source for this market is Kroger's official company earnings materials, including press releases, investor presentations, and regulatory filings. If the specified metric is not reported in these materials, recordings or transcripts of the company's earnings webcast may also be used. Note: This market will resolve based on the most numerically precise version of the specified metric reported in the company's official earnings materials. Only the specified metric will be considered; alternate versions that differ in definition or scope from the specified metric will not be considered.
Probability signal
The market is priced near the middle, which usually means traders are still weighing competing outcomes.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
The 24h move is notable, so recent news or market activity may have changed trader expectations.
The current displayed probability is 49%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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