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Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June?
24h Vol
$45.8K
Liquidity
$39.2K
Spread
1%
7/1/2026
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Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Kroger Q1 identical sales without fuel growth be between 1.5% and 2%?. The market currently shows a live probability of 3%, $5.2K in 24h volume, and $9.9K in liquidity.
Probability
3%
24h Volume
$5.2K
Liquidity
$9.9K
This market asks whether Kroger will report first-quarter fiscal 2026 identical sales growth excluding fuel in a fairly tight range: between 1.5% and 2%. For a grocery chain like Kroger, identical sales without fuel is a closely watched operating measure because it strips out fuel and focuses on underlying store performance. The market is worth watching because the answer depends on a single company-reported figure that can land just inside or outside the stated band.
The event here is Kroger’s first-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings release, with the key number being identical sales without fuel growth. Resolution is based on Kroger’s official earnings materials, including the press release, investor presentation, and regulatory filings, with webcast or transcript language allowed if the figure is not otherwise reported there. The question is whether the reported growth rate will fall between 1.5% and 2%, and if Kroger does not release quarterly earnings materials for that quarter by July 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to the lowest bracket.
This market exists because same-store sales figures can be reported precisely enough to land near a bracket boundary, and Kroger’s business mix can make small changes meaningful. Identical sales without fuel is a standard retail metric that reflects traffic, pricing, and basket trends more directly than total revenue does, so a modestly strong or weak quarter can change the outcome. The disagreement being priced is whether Kroger’s reported growth will be strong enough to clear 1.5% but not so strong that it moves above 2%.
The price can move when Kroger’s earnings date approaches, since the market is resolved from the company’s own reported figures rather than outside estimates. Any official earnings materials that include the identical sales without fuel number, or a transcript quote that clarifies it, will matter most, especially if the result looks close to 1.5% or 2.0%. Because the rules use the most numerically precise version reported and round exact boundary cases up to the higher bracket, even a decimal-point difference can change which side of the range wins.
Related markets

+1%
24h Vol
$45.8K
Liquidity
$39.2K
Spread
1%
7/1/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 3% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Readers should check Kroger’s official quarterly earnings release and any attached investor presentation or filing for the exact wording of identical sales without fuel growth. If the figure is given as a range, the midpoint is used, and if the metric is omitted entirely from the official materials, the market falls to the lowest bracket under the stated rules. The key ambiguity to watch is whether the reported number is presented with enough precision to sit inside the 1.5% to 2% band, and whether the company releases its first-quarter fiscal 2026 materials before the July 30, 2026 deadline.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Kroger Q1 identical sales without fuel growth be between 1.5% and 2%?. The market currently shows a live probability of 3%, $5.2K in 24h volume, and $9.9K in liquidity.
Track live finance prediction markets focused on interest rates, inflation, stock market events, central bank decisions, and global financial forecasting trends.
Yes
2.5%
No
97.5%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 18, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve according to Kroger's announced identical sales without fuel growth for the first fiscal quarter of 2026, as reported in its official company earnings materials. The specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered. If the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the specified company does not release quarterly earnings materials for the specified quarter by July 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the specified metric is reported as a range rather than a specific number, the midpoint of the range will be used for resolution of this market. The resolution source for this market is Kroger's official company earnings materials, including press releases, investor presentations, and regulatory filings. If the specified metric is not reported in these materials, recordings or transcripts of the company's earnings webcast may also be used. Note: This market will resolve based on the most numerically precise version of the specified metric reported in the company's official earnings materials. Only the specified metric will be considered; alternate versions that differ in definition or scope from the specified metric will not be considered.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
The 24h move is notable, so recent news or market activity may have changed trader expectations.
The current displayed probability is 3%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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