sports
⚡ Tight
10%
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Arthur Rinderknech vs. Novak Djokovic: Arthur Rinderknech vs Novak Djokovic
24h Vol
$514.4K
Liquidity
--
Spread
1%
7/17/2026
View marketSports
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Madison Keys win the 2026 Women’s US Open?. The market currently shows a live probability of 1%, $3K in 24h volume, and $3.6K in liquidity.
Probability
1%
24h Volume
$3K
Liquidity
$3.6K
This market asks whether Madison Keys will win the 2026 U.S. Open women’s singles title. The U.S. Open is one of tennis’s four major tournaments, so the outcome depends not just on one match but on a full two-week Grand Slam draw, where injuries, form, and matchup luck can all matter.
The event is the 2026 U.S. Open Women’s Singles Tournament, scheduled for August 23 to September 13, 2026. The market resolves to “Yes” only if Madison Keys is the official singles champion; if another player wins, or Keys is eliminated from contention, it resolves according to the stated rules. If the tournament is canceled, pushed beyond October 31, 2026, or ends without a declared winner in that window, the market resolves to “Other.”
Madison Keys is a high-profile American player with the kind of power game that can produce a deep run or an early exit depending on draw, fitness, and surface form. A Grand Slam field also includes multiple top contenders, so even a strong player can be priced as an underdog if the title path looks difficult. That uncertainty is what the market is weighing: whether Keys can survive seven rounds at one of the sport’s toughest events.
The biggest price moves would come from information that changes Keys’s expected path through the draw, such as confirmed injury concerns, a withdrawal, or a favorable or unfavorable section of the bracket once the field is set. Results in lead-up hard-court events can also matter if they show strong form or physical issues, especially because the U.S. Open is played on hard courts. During the tournament itself, every win, upset in her section, or report that she is unable to continue can shift expectations quickly.
The current market price implies roughly a 1% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
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24h Vol
$514.4K
Liquidity
--
Spread
1%
7/17/2026
View marketReaders should watch the official U.S. Open draw, the tournament schedule, and Keys’s match results, since settlement depends on the named champion and the event’s official outcome. The primary source of truth is the U.S. Open itself, with credible reporting used only if needed under the rules. The main ambiguity to check for is whether the tournament finishes on time and whether there is any unusual circumstance that prevents an official women’s singles winner from being declared by the deadline.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Madison Keys win the 2026 Women’s US Open?. The market currently shows a live probability of 1%, $3K in 24h volume, and $3.6K in liquidity.
Track live sports prediction markets focused on championships, tournaments, player performances, team outcomes, and major sporting events worldwide.
Yes
1.3%
No
98.8%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Sep 13, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
The 2026 U.S. Open tennis tournament is scheduled for August 23 - September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to the player that wins the 2026 U.S. Open Women’s Singles Tournament. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed player to win the 2026 U.S. Open Women’s Singles Tournament per the rules of the tournament, the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the 2026 U.S. Open Women’s Singles Tournament is cancelled, postponed after October 31, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Open (https://www.usopen.org/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
No 24h movement is available yet.
The current displayed probability is 1%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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