Sports
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Mateusz Gamrot be the UFC Lightweight Champion on December 31, 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 0%, $726.1 in 24h volume, and $421.8 in liquidity.
Probability
0%
24h Volume
$726.1
Liquidity
$421.8
This market asks whether Mateusz Gamrot will be the UFC Lightweight Champion at the official check time on December 31, 2026. It is a straightforward title question about who holds the belt in one of the UFC’s most competitive divisions, where rankings, title fights, injuries, and vacancies can all matter over a long stretch of time.
The outcome is tied to the official UFC lightweight champion as listed by the UFC on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Only the recognized UFC lightweight title counts here: an interim champion does not qualify, and if the belt is vacant at the check time the market resolves to “Other.” Because Mateusz Gamrot is a contender rather than the current division baseline, the market is really asking whether he will capture and still officially hold the lightweight belt by that date.
There is uncertainty because MMA title pictures can change quickly through championship bouts, injuries, withdrawals, and matchup timing. Gamrot’s path would depend not just on winning fights, but on getting a title shot, winning the belt, and then still being the official champion at the resolution time. Readers care because a single fight can reshape the division, but the title can also move through interim belts or vacated championships without satisfying this market’s specific rules.
The biggest price movers would be official UFC lightweight title fights involving Mateusz Gamrot, especially if he is announced for a championship bout or becomes the next challenger. Any result that changes the belt holder in the division — including a title win, a loss, an injury-related vacancy, or the creation of an interim belt — could affect whether the answer is Yes or No under these rules. Even if Gamrot wins a title late in 2026, readers should watch the exact check date and time, since he must still be the official champion then.
Related markets
The current market price implies roughly a 0% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
The key source of truth is the UFC’s official athlete and championship information, since the market settles from UFC division records rather than media rankings or commentary. Before resolution, check whether the lightweight belt is officially held by Mateusz Gamrot, whether it has been declared vacant, and whether any interim title exists — because interim belts do not count. The precise deadline is December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET, so any title change after that time would not affect this market.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Mateusz Gamrot be the UFC Lightweight Champion on December 31, 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 0%, $726.1 in 24h volume, and $421.8 in liquidity.
Track live sports prediction markets focused on championships, tournaments, player performances, team outcomes, and major sporting events worldwide.
Yes
0.1%
No
100%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Dec 31, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve according to the official UFC Lightweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count. If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
No 24h movement is available yet.
The current displayed probability is 0%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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7/15/2026
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1%
7/6/2026
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