
-1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T?
24h Vol
$83.5K
Liquidity
$112.9K
Spread
1%
12/31/2027
View marketTechnology
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 0%, $405.6 in 24h volume, and $15.8K in liquidity.
Probability
0%
24h Volume
$405.6
Liquidity
$15.8K
This market asks whether Meituan will be the company behind the top-ranked AI model on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard at the end of July 2026. It is a narrow, rules-based question about comparative model performance, not about product popularity or revenue, so the exact leaderboard source and check time matter a lot.
The question is which company owns the model that sits in first place on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard when the leaderboard is checked on July 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. The market uses the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab at lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control turned off, and the company at the top under that ranking system wins. Meituan is a Chinese technology and services company best known for its delivery and local commerce platform, so this market is asking whether it will be the owner of the leaderboard-leading model at that moment.
This market is uncertain because AI leaderboard positions can change quickly as companies release new models or updates, and small score differences can reshuffle the top spot. Meituan is not the name most readers would normally expect in a global frontier-model race, which makes the question especially interesting: the market is effectively pricing whether Meituan can field a model that outranks better-known AI labs by the July 2026 check date. The rules also make this a precise ranking contest, so even a tie can be decided by score details and company-name tiebreaks.
The main price drivers are public model launches, leaderboard updates, and any sign that Meituan has introduced a model that climbs into first place on the Chatbot Arena ranking. Because the resolution depends on the exact leaderboard snapshot at the specified time, changes in rank, Arena score, or even tie-breaking conditions can matter. If another company holds the top spot by the check time, or if Meituan’s model remains lower on the list, that would push the market toward "No."
Related markets

-1%
24h Vol
$83.5K
Liquidity
$112.9K
Spread
1%
12/31/2027
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 0% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Readers should watch the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard, specifically the "Rank" section on the text leaderboard with the style filter off, and pay attention to the exact July 31, 2026 12:00 PM ET check time. The resolution rules say rank comes first, then Arena score including unrounded underlying values, and finally alphabetical company-name order if needed, so a close tie is not automatically resolved by the visible rounded score. If the leaderboard is temporarily unavailable at check time, the market stays open until it returns; that means the source itself, not just headlines about AI releases, is the final reference point.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 0%, $405.6 in 24h volume, and $15.8K in liquidity.
Track live technology prediction markets focused on AI, major tech events, product launches, innovation forecasts, and emerging industry trends.
Yes
0.3%
No
99.8%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jul 31, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on July 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is relatively deep for a prediction market page, so quoted prices may be more reliable than very thin markets.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 0%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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