
+7%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T?
24h Vol
$182.8K
Liquidity
$87.9K
Spread
1%
12/31/2027
View marketTechnology
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Meituan have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 0%, $2.4K in 24h volume, and $12.9K in liquidity.
Probability
0%
24h Volume
$2.4K
Liquidity
$12.9K
This market asks whether Meituan will be the company with the top-ranked AI model on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard at the end of June 2026. It is worth watching because the outcome depends on a public benchmark that compares chatbot models, so even small changes in a model’s rank can matter. For readers, the key question is simple: when the leaderboard is checked at the specified time, will a Meituan-owned model be sitting in first place?
Meituan is the Chinese technology and services company best known for consumer platforms, and this market is specifically about whether one of its AI models will lead the Chatbot Arena LLM leaderboard. The resolution rule says the market uses the "Text Arena | Overall" leaderboard on lmarena.ai with style control on, checked at June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. The winner is the company that owns the model in first place under the market’s ranking rules, not simply the model name itself.
The uncertainty comes from the fact that leaderboard positions can change as models are updated, evaluated, or overtaken by competitors. Meituan would need a model to outperform other major AI systems on that specific public ranking at the check time, which is a narrow and competitive target. The market is effectively pricing disagreement about whether Meituan can reach or hold the top spot on that benchmark by the deadline.
Anything that changes Meituan’s position on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard can move this market, especially a new model release, an evaluation update, or a ranking shift among leading labs. Because the rule uses the leaderboard rank first, then Arena score as the tiebreaker, even a close head-to-head race could matter if Meituan is near the top. A model falling behind before the June 30 check, or the leaderboard changing after a refresh, would also affect the result.
Related markets

+7%
24h Vol
$182.8K
Liquidity
$87.9K
Spread
1%
12/31/2027
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 0% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
The most important thing to verify is the exact leaderboard page named in the rules: the "Text Arena | Overall" tab on lmarena.ai with style control on. Readers should check which company owns the model in first place at the specified time, and also pay attention to the tie-breaking rule, since exact Arena score can decide close calls. If the leaderboard is unavailable at check time, the market stays open until it comes back, so the source-of-truth page and the time of the first valid check are both important.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Meituan have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 0%, $2.4K in 24h volume, and $12.9K in liquidity.
Track live technology prediction markets focused on AI, major tech events, product launches, innovation forecasts, and emerging industry trends.
Yes
0.2%
No
99.9%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 30, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is relatively deep for a prediction market page, so quoted prices may be more reliable than very thin markets.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
No 24h movement is available yet.
The current displayed probability is 0%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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