
+7%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T?
24h Vol
$185.2K
Liquidity
$84.9K
Spread
1%
12/31/2027
View marketTechnology
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Meta have the second best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 1%, $84 in 24h volume, and $2.8K in liquidity.
Probability
1%
24h Volume
$84
Liquidity
$2.8K
This market asks whether Meta will be the company behind the second-highest-ranked coding model on the Chatbot Arena coding leaderboard at the end of June 2026. It is a narrow, definition-heavy question: the answer depends on a specific ranking page, a specific tab, and the exact check time on June 30, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
The page looks at the "Text Arena | Coding" leaderboard on LMArena and asks which company sits in second place when the "Rank" column is read with style control turned off. The market is not about general AI quality or overall model popularity; it is about coding-specific performance on that one leaderboard snapshot. If Meta’s model is the company in second place at the check time, the market resolves "Yes"; otherwise it resolves "No."
Meta is a major AI company, but it is not always the leader across every coding benchmark, and the coding leaderboard can shift as new models are added or scores are updated. That creates a simple but uncertain question: can Meta place second on this particular benchmark by the June 2026 check? Readers care because the answer reflects how Meta’s coding models compare with rivals like Google, OpenAI, Anthropic, xAI, and others on a public ranking that many AI watchers track.
The market can move if Meta releases a stronger coding model, if another company posts a model that overtakes it, or if LMArena updates leaderboard results in a way that changes the ranking order. Because the rule uses the company behind the model in second place, price can also shift on tie situations, score adjustments, or any leaderboard reshuffling close to the June 30 check. Even if a model’s raw quality seems close, the final outcome can turn on exact rank, exact score, and the tiebreak rules.
The current market price implies roughly a 1% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
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+7%
24h Vol
$185.2K
Liquidity
$84.9K
Spread
1%
12/31/2027
View marketThe key source of truth is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard at lmarena.ai, specifically the "Text Arena | Coding" tab with style control off. Before resolution, readers should verify the rank column, the exact check time of June 30, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET, and whether any tie is broken by Arena score or then by the company-name order defined in the market rules. The description also says the market stays open if the leaderboard is temporarily unavailable, so the resolution may depend on the first valid check after the source comes back online.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Meta have the second best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 1%, $84 in 24h volume, and $2.8K in liquidity.
Track live technology prediction markets focused on AI, major tech events, product launches, innovation forecasts, and emerging industry trends.
Yes
1.2%
No
98.9%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 30, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the second-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab for "Coding" is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Coding" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/coding-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
No 24h movement is available yet.
The current displayed probability is 1%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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