economy
⚡ Tight💧 Liquid
0%
--
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
24h Vol
$42.6K
Liquidity
$188.6K
Spread
0%
12/31/2026
View marketFinance
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Micron Q3 DRAM revenue be above $25B?. The market currently shows a live probability of 94%, $781.3 in 24h volume, and $1.1K in liquidity.
Probability
94%
24h Volume
$781.3
Liquidity
$1.1K
This market asks a very specific question about Micron’s third fiscal quarter of 2026: will the company report DRAM revenue above $25 billion in its official earnings materials? Micron is one of the key suppliers in memory chips, so its DRAM revenue is closely watched as a gauge of demand, pricing, and overall memory-cycle strength. The answer will come from Micron’s own reported numbers, not from estimates or later commentary.
The event is tied to Micron Technology’s fiscal Q3 2026 results and the DRAM segment revenue figure reported in the company’s earnings release, investor presentation, or related regulatory filing. For this market to resolve "Yes," the most precise official number for DRAM revenue must be greater than $25 billion; if it is $25 billion or less, the outcome is "No." If Micron reports a range, the midpoint is used, and if the metric is not included in the official materials, the market resolves "No."
Micron’s DRAM revenue can swing with memory pricing, customer demand, and the mix of data-center, mobile, and PC shipments, so there is genuine uncertainty around where the quarterly number will land. The $25 billion threshold makes this a clean yes/no test of whether the quarter cleared a high bar rather than a broad guess about business performance. Readers following the market are essentially weighing whether Micron’s reported DRAM sales will come in above a very specific cutoff in the company’s own disclosures.
The biggest price moves will usually come from anything that changes expectations for Micron’s reported memory revenue before the earnings materials are released, especially guidance in the prior quarter and management commentary about DRAM demand. Supply-chain news, pricing trends, and customer demand in high-end markets such as data centers can matter because they affect whether revenue crosses the $25 billion line. After release, the exact number in the official earnings materials will be the decisive factor, and later revisions will not count.
Related markets
--
24h Vol
$42.6K
Liquidity
$188.6K
Spread
0%
12/31/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 94% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
The key source of truth is Micron’s official earnings release, investor presentation, and any included regulatory filing for fiscal Q3 2026; if the number is missing there, the market may also use the earnings webcast transcript or recording. The deadline in the rules is July 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET: if Micron has not released the relevant quarterly materials by then, the market resolves "No." Because the rule uses the most numerically precise reported version of DRAM revenue, readers should check whether the company gives a single figure or a range and, if it is a range, note the midpoint used for resolution.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Micron Q3 DRAM revenue be above $25B?. The market currently shows a live probability of 94%, $781.3 in 24h volume, and $1.1K in liquidity.
Track live finance prediction markets focused on interest rates, inflation, stock market events, central bank decisions, and global financial forecasting trends.
Yes
94.1%
No
5.9%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 24, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Micron's DRAM revenue for the third fiscal quarter of 2026, as reported in its official company earnings materials and investor presentation, is above the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered. If the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to "No". If the specified company does not release quarterly earnings materials for the specified quarter by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". If the specified metric is reported as a range rather than a specific number, the midpoint of the range will be used for resolution of this market. The resolution source for this market is Micron's official company earnings materials and investor presentation, including press releases, investor presentations, and regulatory filings. If the specified metric is not reported in these materials, recordings or transcripts of the company's earnings webcast may also be used. Note: This market will resolve based on the most numerically precise version of the specified metric reported in the company's official earnings materials. Only the specified metric will be considered; alternate versions that differ in definition or scope from the specified metric will not be considered.
Probability signal
The current price implies a strong favorite, so new information would need to be meaningful to move the market sharply.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 94%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
+1%
24h Vol
$54.5K
Liquidity
$58.1K
Spread
1%
6/30/2026
View market
+4%
24h Vol
$26.5K
Liquidity
$30.9K
Spread
1%
7/1/2026
View market
+0.5%
24h Vol
$55.6K
Liquidity
$41.9K
Spread
0%
6/30/2026
View market
-1%
24h Vol
$63.1K
Liquidity
$71.6K
Spread
1%
12/31/2026
View market-2.5%
24h Vol
$18.8K
Liquidity
$6.2K
Spread
1%
Live
View market