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Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
24h Vol
$42.2K
Liquidity
$194K
Spread
0%
12/31/2026
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Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Micron Q3 DRAM revenue be above $26B?. The market currently shows a live probability of 95%, $572.2 in 24h volume, and $3.6K in liquidity.
Probability
95%
24h Volume
$572.2
Liquidity
$3.6K
This market asks whether Micron will report third-quarter fiscal 2026 DRAM revenue above $26 billion in its official earnings materials. It is a very specific check on one line item from Micron’s quarterly reporting, not on the company’s overall revenue or profit. Because the resolution depends on the company’s own published numbers, the key question is whether Micron’s memory-chip business clears that threshold in the quarter.
Micron is a major semiconductor company, and DRAM is the dynamic random-access memory used in products like servers, PCs, phones, and other devices that need fast working memory. The market resolves on Micron’s third fiscal quarter of 2026, using the company’s official earnings release, investor presentation, and related filings; if the metric is shown as a range, the midpoint is used. The cutoff for a quarterly release is July 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, and if Micron does not publish the relevant earnings materials by then, the market resolves No.
There is uncertainty because DRAM revenue can move sharply with memory pricing, product mix, and demand from data centers and other electronics markets, and Micron reports its segment results only at earnings time. Readers may care because DRAM is one of Micron’s core businesses and a direct indicator of how strong the memory cycle is for the quarter. The market is effectively asking whether Micron’s reported DRAM sales will land above a very high threshold in the company’s own quarterly disclosures.
The price can move when Micron’s quarterly reporting date approaches and traders can compare guidance, analyst expectations, and wording in the company’s earnings materials against the $26 billion threshold. Any official figures for DRAM revenue, including a range in the investor presentation or filings, will be decisive because the market uses the most precise number Micron provides. A delayed report, missing segment disclosure, or any clarification in the company’s earnings webcast can also matter because the rules say the official materials control resolution.
Related markets
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24h Vol
$42.2K
Liquidity
$194K
Spread
0%
12/31/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 95% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Before resolution, readers should check Micron’s official earnings release, investor presentation, and any regulatory filing for the third fiscal quarter of 2026, since those are the primary sources of truth. The important detail is the specific DRAM revenue figure, not total company revenue or commentary about future demand. If Micron reports a range, the midpoint will be used, and if the company does not publish the quarter’s earnings materials by the deadline, the market resolves No.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Micron Q3 DRAM revenue be above $26B?. The market currently shows a live probability of 95%, $572.2 in 24h volume, and $3.6K in liquidity.
Track live finance prediction markets focused on interest rates, inflation, stock market events, central bank decisions, and global financial forecasting trends.
Yes
95.3%
No
4.7%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 24, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Micron's DRAM revenue for the third fiscal quarter of 2026, as reported in its official company earnings materials and investor presentation, is above the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered. If the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to "No". If the specified company does not release quarterly earnings materials for the specified quarter by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". If the specified metric is reported as a range rather than a specific number, the midpoint of the range will be used for resolution of this market. The resolution source for this market is Micron's official company earnings materials and investor presentation, including press releases, investor presentations, and regulatory filings. If the specified metric is not reported in these materials, recordings or transcripts of the company's earnings webcast may also be used. Note: This market will resolve based on the most numerically precise version of the specified metric reported in the company's official earnings materials. Only the specified metric will be considered; alternate versions that differ in definition or scope from the specified metric will not be considered.
Probability signal
The current price implies a strong favorite, so new information would need to be meaningful to move the market sharply.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is wider, so the headline probability may be less precise than it looks.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 95%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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