economy
⚡ Tight💧 Liquid
0%
--
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
24h Vol
$42.5K
Liquidity
$189.2K
Spread
0%
12/31/2026
View marketFinance
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Micron Q3 DRAM revenue be above $29B?. The market currently shows a live probability of 69%, $708.2 in 24h volume, and $1.4K in liquidity.
Probability
69%
24h Volume
$708.2
Liquidity
$1.4K
This market asks whether Micron will report third-quarter fiscal 2026 DRAM revenue above $29 billion in its official earnings materials. It is worth watching because Micron is one of the key suppliers in memory chips, and DRAM revenue is a closely watched snapshot of demand, pricing, and mix in a cyclical part of the semiconductor industry.
The question is narrowly defined: will Micron’s reported DRAM revenue for fiscal Q3 2026 come in above $29 billion, as stated in the company’s earnings release, investor presentation, or related official filing. If Micron reports a range, the midpoint is used; if the metric is not reported in the official materials, the market resolves No. The deadline matters too: if Micron does not release quarterly earnings materials for that quarter by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves No.
Micron sells DRAM, a core memory product used in PCs, servers, phones, and other devices, so its DRAM revenue can swing with pricing, inventory cycles, and end-market demand. The uncertainty here is not whether Micron is a large chip company, but whether the company’s own reported DRAM revenue for this exact quarter clears the stated threshold, which is a precise line that can fall on either side depending on product mix and market conditions.
The biggest price moves usually come from Micron’s quarterly earnings release, investor presentation, and any accompanying guidance or commentary that clarifies DRAM demand and pricing. A reported DRAM revenue figure above the $29 billion threshold would support Yes, while a figure at or below the threshold would push the market toward No; if the company reports a range, the midpoint is what counts. Because the market resolves from official company materials, any later restatement does not matter for this page’s outcome.
Related markets
--
24h Vol
$42.5K
Liquidity
$189.2K
Spread
0%
12/31/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 69% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Readers should check Micron’s official earnings materials for fiscal Q3 2026, including the press release, investor deck, and any regulatory filing that contains the DRAM revenue figure. The key details are the exact quarter, the exact reported DRAM revenue number or midpoint of any range, and whether that figure appears in the company’s own materials before the July 31, 2026 deadline. If the metric is omitted or only discussed informally outside the official materials, the rules say that omission can determine the market’s outcome.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Micron Q3 DRAM revenue be above $29B?. The market currently shows a live probability of 69%, $708.2 in 24h volume, and $1.4K in liquidity.
Track live finance prediction markets focused on interest rates, inflation, stock market events, central bank decisions, and global financial forecasting trends.
Yes
69%
No
31%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 24, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Micron's DRAM revenue for the third fiscal quarter of 2026, as reported in its official company earnings materials and investor presentation, is above the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered. If the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to "No". If the specified company does not release quarterly earnings materials for the specified quarter by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". If the specified metric is reported as a range rather than a specific number, the midpoint of the range will be used for resolution of this market. The resolution source for this market is Micron's official company earnings materials and investor presentation, including press releases, investor presentations, and regulatory filings. If the specified metric is not reported in these materials, recordings or transcripts of the company's earnings webcast may also be used. Note: This market will resolve based on the most numerically precise version of the specified metric reported in the company's official earnings materials. Only the specified metric will be considered; alternate versions that differ in definition or scope from the specified metric will not be considered.
Probability signal
The market is priced near the middle, which usually means traders are still weighing competing outcomes.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is wider, so the headline probability may be less precise than it looks.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 69%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
+1%
24h Vol
$53.7K
Liquidity
$60.5K
Spread
1%
6/30/2026
View market
+4%
24h Vol
$26.8K
Liquidity
$31.7K
Spread
1%
7/1/2026
View market
+0.5%
24h Vol
$55.6K
Liquidity
$50K
Spread
0%
6/30/2026
View market
-1%
24h Vol
$63.6K
Liquidity
$77.6K
Spread
1%
12/31/2026
View market-2.5%
24h Vol
$18.8K
Liquidity
$8.8K
Spread
1%
Live
View market