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Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
24h Vol
$42.2K
Liquidity
$194K
Spread
0%
12/31/2026
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Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Micron Q3 DRAM revenue be above $30B?. The market currently shows a live probability of 49%, $269.6 in 24h volume, and $725.6 in liquidity.
Probability
49%
24h Volume
$269.6
Liquidity
$725.6
This market asks a very specific question about Micron’s next quarterly report: whether DRAM revenue for the company’s third fiscal quarter of 2026 will come in above $30 billion. It is worth watching because the answer depends on one line in Micron’s official earnings materials, not on broader market chatter or later commentary.
Micron Technology is a major memory-chip maker, and DRAM is one of its core product categories. For resolution, the market looks only at Micron’s reported DRAM revenue for fiscal Q3 2026 as published in its official earnings release, investor presentation, or related regulatory filing; if the metric is given as a range, the midpoint is used. If Micron does not publish quarterly earnings materials for that quarter by July 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, or if the materials do not include the metric, the market resolves to No.
The uncertainty here is not about whether Micron is a large DRAM business, but about the exact reported revenue figure for one quarter and whether it clears a very high threshold. Investors and observers care because DRAM demand, pricing, and product mix can move from quarter to quarter, and Micron’s own reporting is the only source that matters for this market. The disagreement reflected in the market is essentially whether the company’s official numbers will land above or below that $30 billion cutoff.
The price can move when Micron provides new official clues about memory pricing, customer demand, supply tightness, or product mix in its earnings materials or investor presentation. Guidance for the quarter, especially any mention of DRAM strength relative to other segments, can also matter because traders will infer where the final reported number may land. Any official filing, prepared remarks, or webcast transcript that clarifies the reported DRAM revenue would be especially important because the market resolves on the company’s published figure.
Related markets
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24h Vol
$42.2K
Liquidity
$194K
Spread
0%
12/31/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 49% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
The key items to check are Micron’s official fiscal Q3 2026 earnings release, investor presentation, and any regulatory filing tied to that quarter. Readers should confirm the exact metric name, whether it is reported as a single number or a range, and whether the company’s final published materials include the figure at all. The deadline in the rules is July 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, and the main ambiguity risk is whether the official materials use a different presentation format than expected or omit the DRAM revenue line altogether.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Micron Q3 DRAM revenue be above $30B?. The market currently shows a live probability of 49%, $269.6 in 24h volume, and $725.6 in liquidity.
Track live finance prediction markets focused on interest rates, inflation, stock market events, central bank decisions, and global financial forecasting trends.
Yes
48.5%
No
51.5%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 24, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Micron's DRAM revenue for the third fiscal quarter of 2026, as reported in its official company earnings materials and investor presentation, is above the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered. If the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to "No". If the specified company does not release quarterly earnings materials for the specified quarter by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". If the specified metric is reported as a range rather than a specific number, the midpoint of the range will be used for resolution of this market. The resolution source for this market is Micron's official company earnings materials and investor presentation, including press releases, investor presentations, and regulatory filings. If the specified metric is not reported in these materials, recordings or transcripts of the company's earnings webcast may also be used. Note: This market will resolve based on the most numerically precise version of the specified metric reported in the company's official earnings materials. Only the specified metric will be considered; alternate versions that differ in definition or scope from the specified metric will not be considered.
Probability signal
The market is priced near the middle, which usually means traders are still weighing competing outcomes.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
The 24h move is notable, so recent news or market activity may have changed trader expectations.
The current displayed probability is 49%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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