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Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
24h Vol
$42K
Liquidity
$188.2K
Spread
0%
12/31/2026
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Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Morgan Stanley (MS) Q2 investment banking revenue be above $1.9B?. The market currently shows a live probability of 95%, $989.4 in 24h volume, and $10.5K in liquidity.
Probability
95%
24h Volume
$989.4
Liquidity
$10.5K
This market asks whether Morgan Stanley’s second-quarter investment banking revenue will come in above $1.9 billion in the company’s official earnings materials. For readers following MS, the key issue is not the stock price itself but whether the firm’s reported banking-fee business clears that specific threshold when Q2 results are released.
Morgan Stanley, which trades under the ticker MS, is expected to report second fiscal-quarter earnings materials that include an investment banking revenue figure. The market resolves Yes if that reported number is above $1.9 billion and No if it is at or below that level, not reported at all, or the company does not release the relevant quarterly materials by August 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. If the company gives a range instead of a single number, the midpoint is used, and the resolution follows the most numerically precise version of the metric in Morgan Stanley’s official earnings materials.
Investment banking revenue can swing meaningfully from quarter to quarter because it depends on deal activity, advisory fees, and market conditions. Morgan Stanley is one of the major Wall Street banks, so its Q2 investment banking line is closely watched as a read on how much corporate finance work came through in the period. The market is pricing disagreement about whether the reported number will clear the $1.9 billion bar set in the contract.
The price can move when Morgan Stanley publishes its earnings release, investor presentation, or filing that includes the investment banking revenue figure. Any detail suggesting the number is comfortably above or below $1.9 billion, or that the company used a range, can quickly change expectations because the midpoint rule matters for resolution. If the company delays reporting, omits the metric from the initial materials, or later issues a webcast transcript that clarifies the exact figure, those points could also affect how the market settles.
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24h Vol
$42K
Liquidity
$188.2K
Spread
0%
12/31/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 95% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
The source of truth is Morgan Stanley’s official company earnings materials, including the press release, investor presentation, and regulatory filings; webcast recordings or transcripts only matter if the metric is not included in those materials. Readers should verify the exact wording of the investment banking revenue line, whether it is reported as a point estimate or a range, and whether the figure corresponds to the second fiscal quarter covered by the contract. The deadline in the rules is August 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, and if the metric is missing from the official materials by then, the market resolves No.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Morgan Stanley (MS) Q2 investment banking revenue be above $1.9B?. The market currently shows a live probability of 95%, $989.4 in 24h volume, and $10.5K in liquidity.
Track live finance prediction markets focused on interest rates, inflation, stock market events, central bank decisions, and global financial forecasting trends.
Yes
95.2%
No
4.9%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jul 14, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Morgan Stanley's investment banking revenue for the upcoming second fiscal quarter, as reported in its official company earnings materials, is above the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The company trades under the ticker MS as of the creation of this market. The specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered. If the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to "No". If the specified company does not release quarterly earnings materials for the specified quarter by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". If the specified metric is reported as a range rather than a specific number, the midpoint of the range will be used for resolution of this market. The resolution source for this market is Morgan Stanley's official company earnings materials, including press releases, investor presentations, and regulatory filings. If the specified metric is not reported in these materials, recordings or transcripts of the company's earnings webcast may also be used. Note: This market will resolve based on the most numerically precise version of the specified metric reported in the company's official earnings materials. Only the specified metric will be considered; alternate versions that differ in definition or scope from the specified metric will not be considered.
Probability signal
The current price implies a strong favorite, so new information would need to be meaningful to move the market sharply.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is relatively deep for a prediction market page, so quoted prices may be more reliable than very thin markets.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 95%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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