
--
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
24h Vol
$42.2K
Liquidity
$194K
Spread
0%
12/31/2026
View marketFinance
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Morgan Stanley (MS) Q2 investment banking revenue be above $2.25B?. The market currently shows a live probability of 61%, $1.5K in 24h volume, and $708.2 in liquidity.
Probability
61%
24h Volume
$1.5K
Liquidity
$708.2
This market asks whether Morgan Stanley will report second-quarter investment banking revenue above $2.25 billion in its official earnings materials. It is centered on a single line item from a major Wall Street bank’s quarterly report, so the key issue is not the company’s overall profit but the size of fees from advisory and underwriting work.
Morgan Stanley, traded under the ticker MS, is one of the large U.S. investment banks, and its quarterly earnings release is the source of truth here. The market resolves Yes only if the company’s Q2 investment banking revenue, as stated in official earnings materials, is above $2.25 billion; if the figure is missing, reported in a range, or comes in at or below that level, the market resolves accordingly under the listed rules. The deadline in the rules is August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET for release of the relevant quarterly materials, with the market’s end date shown as July 14, 2026.
Investment banking revenue can swing meaningfully from quarter to quarter because it depends on deal-making, capital markets activity, and the timing of underwriting and advisory fees. Readers may care because this line item is a direct read on how active the market has been for mergers, stock offerings, and debt issuance, and because Morgan Stanley is one of the best-known firms in the sector. The market is pricing disagreement over whether the quarter’s reported fee revenue will clear a relatively high $2.25 billion threshold.
The price can move when Morgan Stanley issues its quarterly earnings press release, investor presentation, or filing that includes the investment banking revenue figure. A reported number clearly above or below $2.25 billion will usually settle the question quickly, while a range, a revised presentation of the metric, or an omitted figure could make the resolution depend on the exact language in the official materials. Any webcast transcript used for resolution would matter only if the metric is not included in the primary earnings documents.
Related markets

--
24h Vol
$42.2K
Liquidity
$194K
Spread
0%
12/31/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 61% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Before resolution, readers should watch for Morgan Stanley’s official second-quarter earnings materials and the exact wording used for investment banking revenue. The most important detail is whether the company reports a single precise number, a range, or no figure at all, because the rules specify how each case is handled. It is also worth checking that the metric is for the correct quarter and that the published amount is the most numerically precise version in the company’s official materials, since later revisions will not count.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Morgan Stanley (MS) Q2 investment banking revenue be above $2.25B?. The market currently shows a live probability of 61%, $1.5K in 24h volume, and $708.2 in liquidity.
Track live finance prediction markets focused on interest rates, inflation, stock market events, central bank decisions, and global financial forecasting trends.
Yes
60.5%
No
39.5%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jul 14, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Morgan Stanley's investment banking revenue for the upcoming second fiscal quarter, as reported in its official company earnings materials, is above the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The company trades under the ticker MS as of the creation of this market. The specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered. If the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to "No". If the specified company does not release quarterly earnings materials for the specified quarter by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". If the specified metric is reported as a range rather than a specific number, the midpoint of the range will be used for resolution of this market. The resolution source for this market is Morgan Stanley's official company earnings materials, including press releases, investor presentations, and regulatory filings. If the specified metric is not reported in these materials, recordings or transcripts of the company's earnings webcast may also be used. Note: This market will resolve based on the most numerically precise version of the specified metric reported in the company's official earnings materials. Only the specified metric will be considered; alternate versions that differ in definition or scope from the specified metric will not be considered.
Probability signal
The market is priced near the middle, which usually means traders are still weighing competing outcomes.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is wider, so the headline probability may be less precise than it looks.
Recent movement
The 24h move is notable, so recent news or market activity may have changed trader expectations.
The current displayed probability is 61%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

-3%
24h Vol
$37.2K
Liquidity
$29K
Spread
1%
7/1/2026
View market
--
24h Vol
$55.8K
Liquidity
$62.3K
Spread
1%
6/30/2026
View market
+0.5%
24h Vol
$55.6K
Liquidity
$57K
Spread
0%
6/30/2026
View market
-1%
24h Vol
$62.7K
Liquidity
$76K
Spread
1%
12/31/2026
View market
-2%
24h Vol
$15.5K
Liquidity
$9.8K
Spread
1%
Live
View market