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Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
24h Vol
$547.8K
Liquidity
$245.5K
Spread
0%
6/30/2026
View marketFinance
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $256 in June?. The market currently shows a live probability of 7%, $448.9 in 24h volume, and $789.8 in liquidity.
Probability
7%
24h Volume
$448.9
Liquidity
$789.8
This market asks whether NVIDIA’s stock will print a 1-minute intraday high of $256 or more at any point during June 2026. Because it uses regular-session highs from Pyth data, it is really about whether NVDA can touch that threshold during normal U.S. trading hours before the month ends.
The outcome is based on NVIDIA (ticker NVDA), one of the most closely watched large-cap U.S. technology stocks. The market resolves to Yes if any 1-minute candle in June 2026 shows a final High price at or above $256 during regular trading hours on the primary exchange, and to No otherwise. The deadline for the market is the end of June 2026, with the resolution window running through the final trading session of the month.
A threshold like $256 can be hard to reach because it depends on both the stock’s overall trend and whether intraday volatility is strong enough to produce a brief spike. NVIDIA’s shares often move around earnings, guidance, semiconductor demand, AI spending, and broader market sentiment, so traders may disagree on whether a single-session high will be enough to clear the line even if the stock does not hold that level at the close.
The main things that can move this market are sharp intraday swings in NVDA during June, especially around earnings-related news, company filings, analyst commentary, or broader semiconductor-sector moves. Because the rule only counts regular-session highs, even a brief surge above $256 on a strong market day would matter, while after-hours moves would not. Corporate actions such as a stock split would also change the quoted level used for resolution because the market adjusts prices proportionally on Pyth.
The current market price implies roughly a 7% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
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24h Vol
$547.8K
Liquidity
$245.5K
Spread
0%
6/30/2026
View marketReaders should check the exact resolution rule: the source is Pyth’s NVDA High price on 1-minute candles, and only candles from regular U.S. trading hours count. The most important details to verify are the listed target after any split adjustment, the final June 2026 cutoff, and whether the relevant candle’s High is published at or above the threshold without rounding. If you are following the page near the end of the month, the key ambiguity to avoid is assuming pre-market, after-hours, or close-only prices can decide the market; they cannot under these rules.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $256 in June?. The market currently shows a live probability of 7%, $448.9 in 24h volume, and $789.8 in liquidity.
Track live finance prediction markets focused on interest rates, inflation, stock market events, central bank decisions, and global financial forecasting trends.
Yes
6.5%
No
93.5%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jul 1, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during June 2026, any 1-minute candle for NVIDIA (NVDA) has a final "High" price equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only prices achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange on which the listed security trades (typically 9:30 AM – 4:00 PM ET) will be considered. Prices occurring during pre-market or after-hours trading will not qualify. Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied. The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the NVIDIA (NVDA) "High" prices available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.NVDA%2FUSD, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. Any timestamp within the listed market time frame may be used to view the relevant candle data (e.g., https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.NVDA%2FUSD?t=1773432000) If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily high price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is wider, so the headline probability may be less precise than it looks.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 7%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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