
+9.8%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
24h Vol
$146.8K
Liquidity
$140.1K
Spread
0%
12/31/2026
View marketFinance
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $264 in June?. The market currently shows a live probability of 3%, $581.2 in 24h volume, and $3.2K in liquidity.
Probability
3%
24h Volume
$581.2
Liquidity
$3.2K
This market asks whether NVIDIA’s stock will print a 1-minute candle high of at least $264 at any point during June 2026, using only regular U.S. trading hours. Because NVIDIA is a large-cap semiconductor and AI hardware company, even a brief move to that level would require a notable intraday rally or volatility burst.
The question is simple: will any regular-session 1-minute candle for NVIDIA (NVDA) show a published High price at or above $264 before June ends. Resolution is based on Pyth data for NVDA/USD, with the chart set to 1-minute candles, and only prices from the primary exchange’s normal market hours count. If NVIDIA undergoes a stock split or similar corporate action during the period, the market uses split-adjusted prices and the target is adjusted proportionally.
This market captures uncertainty around how far NVDA can trade over a short window, not where it closes the month. NVIDIA is widely watched because its share price can react sharply to earnings, guidance, AI demand expectations, chip-supply news, and broader moves in semiconductor and growth stocks. Traders and readers are effectively disagreeing about whether June 2026 will include a high-enough intraday spike to reach the threshold.
The biggest price-moving events for this market are NVIDIA-specific disclosures and market-wide shifts that affect growth and AI names. Quarterly earnings, guidance updates, regulatory or export-related headlines, major product announcements, and sudden swings in the broader Nasdaq or semiconductor sector could all help push an intraday high toward or away from $264. Because the rule uses the session high on 1-minute candles, even a short-lived surge matters more than the closing price.
The current market price implies roughly a 3% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
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+9.8%
24h Vol
$146.8K
Liquidity
$140.1K
Spread
0%
12/31/2026
View marketBefore the market resolves, readers should check the exact rule: only regular trading hours count, the reference is Pyth’s published 1-minute High price, and prices are used exactly as displayed without rounding. The deadline is the end of June 2026, so any qualifying move must occur before then and during a normal session on the primary exchange. The main ambiguity risk is a corporate action or data-feed adjustment, since the market explicitly relies on split-adjusted Pyth history if NVIDIA changes its share count structure.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $264 in June?. The market currently shows a live probability of 3%, $581.2 in 24h volume, and $3.2K in liquidity.
Track live finance prediction markets focused on interest rates, inflation, stock market events, central bank decisions, and global financial forecasting trends.
Yes
3.3%
No
96.8%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jul 1, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during June 2026, any 1-minute candle for NVIDIA (NVDA) has a final "High" price equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only prices achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange on which the listed security trades (typically 9:30 AM – 4:00 PM ET) will be considered. Prices occurring during pre-market or after-hours trading will not qualify. Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied. The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the NVIDIA (NVDA) "High" prices available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.NVDA%2FUSD, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. Any timestamp within the listed market time frame may be used to view the relevant candle data (e.g., https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.NVDA%2FUSD?t=1773432000) If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily high price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is wider, so the headline probability may be less precise than it looks.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 3%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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