
-2.1%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?
24h Vol
$140.7K
Liquidity
$73.6K
Spread
0%
6/9/2026
View marketCulture
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will "Obsession" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 21m and 24m?. The market currently shows a live probability of 10%, $3.6K in 24h volume, and $3.6K in liquidity.
Probability
10%
24h Volume
$3.6K
Liquidity
$3.6K
This market asks whether the movie "Obsession" will land a domestic fourth-weekend box office total between $21 million and $24 million for the June 5-7 frame. It is a fairly narrow range, so even a small difference in the final reported weekend gross can change the outcome. The answer will depend on the finalized weekend figure published for the film, not on early studio estimates.
The event is the fourth weekend box office performance for "Obsession," with resolution tied to the 3-day weekend from June 5 through June 7. The market uses the "Daily Box Office Performance" figures on the movie’s The Numbers box office page, and it will not resolve from estimates if the weekend number is still provisional. If the reported total lands exactly on a boundary between brackets, the higher bracket wins.
There is uncertainty because box office totals can move between estimate and final reporting, and because a film’s fourth-weekend hold can vary depending on audience demand, theater counts, and weekend-to-weekend drops. The market is really pricing whether "Obsession" finishes inside a specific mid-$20 million band rather than just above or below it. That makes the final reported domestic weekend figure the key point of disagreement.
Any new box office update, especially a final rather than estimated weekend total, can move the market quickly. If the reported number edges toward $21 million or $24 million, traders may reassess whether the final figure fits the target range or falls just outside it. Changes in reporting from The Numbers or Box Office Mojo matter here because the market stays open until final figures are confirmed.
The current market price implies roughly a 10% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Related markets

-2.1%
24h Vol
$140.7K
Liquidity
$73.6K
Spread
0%
6/9/2026
View marketWatch the finalized 3-day weekend box office number for June 5-7 on The Numbers, since that is the stated source of truth. The rules also say that if the number is still ambiguous, the market waits until both The Numbers and Box Office Mojo confirm final figures. If no final data is available by June 14, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, a different credible source may be used, so readers should verify which source ultimately closes the market.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will "Obsession" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 21m and 24m?. The market currently shows a live probability of 10%, $3.6K in 24h volume, and $3.6K in liquidity.
Track live culture prediction markets focused on entertainment, celebrity events, streaming trends, viral topics, movies, music, and global pop culture developments.
Yes
9.5%
No
90.5%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 8, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve according to how much "Obsession" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its fourth weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (June 5 - June 7) are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures. If there is no final data available by June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is wider, so the headline probability may be less precise than it looks.
Recent movement
The 24h move is notable, so recent news or market activity may have changed trader expectations.
The current displayed probability is 10%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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