Will "Obsession" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on June 30?

What this market is about

The outcome depends on which film released in May 2026 has the highest domestic gross by June 30, using The Numbers’ “Daily Box Office Performance” figures on each film’s Box Office tab. “Obsession” is the named film being tracked against the rest of the May slate, and the market resolves to Yes only if it is the leader on that date. If two films are tied, the one listed first alphabetically wins the market, and if final data is not available by July 15, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, another credible source will be used.

Why the market exists

This market centers on an open box-office race among May releases, where early momentum, audience reception, theater count, and weekday staying power can all change the leaderboard. May is a crowded release window for studios, so a film can start strong and still be overtaken later in the month by a different title with better legs. Readers following this market are essentially watching whether “Obsession” can outgross every other May 2026 release domestically by the June 30 cutoff.

What can move the price

New box office data from The Numbers can move this market quickly, especially opening-weekend totals, daily holds, and any sign that another May release is pulling ahead. A strong debut for “Obsession” would help its case, but the more important signal is whether it keeps enough audience after opening to stay on top through the end of June. Theater expansion, sharp drops after the first weekend, or a breakout from another May title are the kinds of event-specific developments that can reshape the leader.

How to read the current probability