Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?

Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 9%, $251.3 in 24h volume, and $9.6K in liquidity.

Track live technology prediction markets focused on AI, major tech events, product launches, innovation forecasts, and emerging industry trends.

This market is currently listed with an end date of Jul 31, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on July 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.