finance
🔥 Hot⚡ Tight
85%
+7%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T?
24h Vol
$185.2K
Liquidity
$84.9K
Spread
1%
12/31/2027
View marketTechnology
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will OpenAI have the second best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 3%, $84 in 24h volume, and $997.5 in liquidity.
Probability
3%
24h Volume
$84
Liquidity
$997.5
This market asks whether OpenAI will be the company behind the second-place model on Chatbot Arena’s Coding leaderboard at the June 30, 2026 check. It is worth watching because the ranking depends on how coding-focused models compare on a public benchmark that can shift as new models are added or re-evaluated.
The question is not whether OpenAI has a strong coding model in general, but whether it owns the model sitting in the No. 2 spot on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard for Coding at 12:00 PM ET on June 30, 2026. The market resolves from the "Text Arena | Coding" leaderboard with style control off, using the Rank column and the tie-break rules stated in the market description. If two models share a rank, the leaderboard’s Arena score is used, and if that still leaves a tie, the company-name ordering in this market group decides which company is placed higher.
OpenAI has been one of the most closely watched companies in coding and general-purpose AI, but leaderboard positions can change quickly as competing labs release improved models. The uncertainty here is whether another company will hold the second slot by the deadline, or whether OpenAI will have a model strong enough to stay near the top of the coding-specific ranking. Readers following this market are essentially watching which company’s coding model performance is best enough to claim that exact leaderboard position on the check date.
New model launches, benchmark updates, or leaderboard reshuffling on Chatbot Arena can all change the outlook, especially if another company releases a coding model that scores above OpenAI’s. Changes to the ordering of the top coding models, including tie-break outcomes based on Arena score, would matter directly because the market resolves from the rank table rather than from announcements or self-reported performance. Any sign that OpenAI is shipping a coding-focused model, or that a rival is gaining ground on the leaderboard, could move the market.
Related markets
+7%
24h Vol
$185.2K
Liquidity
$84.9K
Spread
1%
12/31/2027
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 3% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Before resolution, the key thing to verify is the exact Chatbot Arena Coding leaderboard entry at the June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET check time, including the Rank column and the underlying Arena scores used for tie-breaks. The market uses the leaderboard at lmarena.ai, specifically the Coding table with style control off, so the public source of truth matters more than press releases or marketing claims. If the leaderboard is unavailable at the scheduled check, the market rules say it stays open until the source returns and then resolves from the first available check afterward, so readers should watch for any downtime or data display changes.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will OpenAI have the second best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 3%, $84 in 24h volume, and $997.5 in liquidity.
Track live technology prediction markets focused on AI, major tech events, product launches, innovation forecasts, and emerging industry trends.
Yes
2.5%
No
97.5%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 30, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the second-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab for "Coding" is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Coding" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/coding-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 3%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
+23.7%
24h Vol
$126K
Liquidity
$30.9K
Spread
13%
6/15/2026
View market
+1.7%
24h Vol
$32.9K
Liquidity
$60.9K
Spread
0%
6/30/2026
View market
-1.9%
24h Vol
$76.2K
Liquidity
$120.9K
Spread
0%
6/30/2026
View market+27.5%
24h Vol
$86.1K
Liquidity
$46K
Spread
3%
6/30/2026
View market-0.1%
24h Vol
$34.4K
Liquidity
$46.7K
Spread
0%
Live
View market